Stoke City vs Norwich — Championship: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsStoke City FCYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow1 clip- 13′Stoke City, goal:1–0
- Half-time1 – 0
- 46′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 46′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 46′Norwich, substitution:off
- 47′Stoke City, yellow card:Argument
- 49′Stoke City, yellow card:Foul
- 56′Norwich, substitution:off
- 59′Stoke City, substitution:off
- 61′Norwich, yellow card:Foul
- 66′Norwich, yellow card:Foul
- 71′Norwich, substitution:off
- 71′Norwich, substitution:off
- 85′Norwich, substitution:off
- 87′Stoke City, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
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Stoke City
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Match report
Stoke City vs Norwich — the facts
Stoke City beat Norwich 1–0 (half-time 1–0).
Stoke City met Norwich in the Championship (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Tuesday, 1 September 2026, 19:00 UTC at bet365 Stadium. Referee: Andrew Kitchen.
Team pages: Stoke City · Norwich · Championship
Key moments
- 13' Goal: Ethan Galbraith — 1–0 · Watch Ethan Galbraith's goal video (13')
Starting line-ups
Stoke City (3-4-3)
Norwich (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Stoke City 30%, the draw 29%, Norwich 41%. It finished Stoke City 1–0 Norwich.
Norwich's rating edge outweighs Stoke City's home ground — Norwich are the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade plus a weak Championship home advantage on top give Norwich the lean. The draw at 29% is up from the usual 27.2% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Norwich at 41%?
Norwich sit 183 points higher on our strength rating — 1385 to 1567. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,127 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Stoke City's column. Across 10,876 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,391 games vs 44.9% across all 99,641 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 29–25–46.
Why only 41%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 41% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 29% and Stoke City at 30%.
Why the draw at 29%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,061. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Last 6 between them: Stoke City 1 win, 2 draws, Norwich 3 wins. Most recently Norwich 0–2 Stoke City, 8 months ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 28.1% of 5607 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points. Norwich's last five: W-L-L-W-W — clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.7% of 2200 games when clearly hotter and 42.8% of 4017 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Stoke City vs Norwich final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Stoke City 1–0 Norwich. Explore more on the Stoke City and Norwich team pages or the Championship page.