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Sheffield Utd vs 01.09.26 18:453 – 2Full Time
Bolton — Championship: stats, lineups & analysisMatch report
Sheffield Utd beat Bolton 3–2 (half-time 1–1).
Sheffield Utd met Bolton in the Championship (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Tuesday, 1 September 2026, 18:45 UTC at Bramall Lane. Referee: Tony Harrington.
Team pages: Sheffield Utd · Bolton · Championship
Before kick-off Sirius gave Sheffield Utd 62%, the draw 25%, Bolton 13%. It finished Sheffield Utd 3–2 Bolton.
Sheffield Utd's rating gap decides it — Sheffield Utd are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Sheffield Utd's 62%. The draw at 25% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Sheffield Utd sit 227 points higher on our strength rating — 1546 to 1319. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 5,969 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 61–21–18.
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Sheffield Utd's column. Across 10,876 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. Championship home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 24.9% norm). Championship homes won 43.0% of 8,391 games vs 44.9% across all 99,641 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,722. Championship runs draw-heavy, adding 2.0 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
Bolton are newly promoted — game 4 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen. Last 4 between them: Sheffield Utd 3 wins, 0 draws, Bolton 1 win. Most recently Sheffield Utd 2–0 Bolton, 8 years ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 43.1% of 5070 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
On this page: the Sheffield Utd vs Bolton final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Championship fixture.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Sheffield Utd 3–2 Bolton. Explore more on the Sheffield Utd and Bolton team pages or the Championship page.
Sheffield Utd beat Bolton 3–2 (half-time 1–1).
Xavier Simons (1') for Bolton; Japhet Tanganga (4') for Sheffield Utd; Samuel Dalby (67') for Bolton; Patrick Bamford (68') for Sheffield Utd; Romelle Donovan (90') for Sheffield Utd.
Goal highlights and video clips from Sheffield Utd 3–2 Bolton are on this page — open the videos tab to watch every goal.
Sheffield Utd and Bolton have met 4 times — 3 wins for Sheffield Utd, 1 win for Bolton and 0 draws.