Match preview
Oviedo host league leaders Eibar in Segunda División matchday nine
Oviedo welcome Eibar to the Nuevo Carlos Tartiere on matchday nine of the Segunda División, with the visitors sitting top of the table on 21 points from eight games. Oviedo, managed by Julian Calero, are tenth on 11 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Eibar, under Jokin Aranbarri, arrive having won their last 7 games. Across their last five they have scored 15 goals and conceded four, keeping two clean sheets and failing to score only in none of them. Their most recent outing was a 3-1 away win at Albacete.
Oviedo's recent record is more uneven: two wins and two defeats in their last five, plus a goalless draw with Burgos. They lost 4-1 at Eldense in their latest game, but at home they have kept three clean sheets in five and scored only two goals in that run.
Across their last 5 meetings, Oviedo won 2, Eibar won 1, with 2 draws. The most recent meeting was Eibar 1–1 Oviedo on 5 April 2025. Oviedo's latest win in this sample was Oviedo 1–0 Eibar on 29 September 2024. Eibar's latest win in this sample was Eibar 4–3 Oviedo on 2 June 2024.
Eibar have won all five of their last five league games, scoring 15 goals, while Oviedo have won two, drawn one and lost two of theirs.
Both sides have faced Eldense recently: Eibar won 2-1 away on 19 September, while Oviedo lost 4-1 there on 2 October.
Oviedo meet Eibar in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 16:30 UTC at Nuevo Carlos Tartiere. Referee: Morales Moreno Pablo.
Team pages: Oviedo · Eibar · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Oviedo 37% · Draw 28% · Eibar 35%
Home advantage edges Oviedo past stronger Eibar — Our strength rating has Eibar 102 points higher, but Oviedo's home advantage, plus a cold finishing spell of the kind that has tended to bounce back, gives them a narrow edge at 37% to 35%. The draw sits at 28%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged up by typical scoring and down by that finishing streak.
Why Oviedo at 37%?
Home ground, against the rating. Eibar sit 102 points higher on our strength rating — 1508 to 1610. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.9% of 13,830 such games. Oviedo sit -0.73 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.7% of 2,519 such games where the class table expected 35.9%. Oviedo hold 9 more possession points (51 to 42 in recent games) across a 102-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,629 such games where the class table expected 40.6%.
Why only 37%?
Because Eibar are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 28% and Eibar at 35%.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,308. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Eibar scored +0.50 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,831 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Oviedo won 3 of the last 6 meetings with Eibar. The record is 3 wins for Oviedo, 2 draws and 1 win for Eibar. These were 6 Segunda División games played at both grounds between 19 November 2023 and 5 April 2025. Latest meeting: 5 April 2025 — Eibar 1–1 Oviedo. In 5,182 historical matches between similarly rated teams, home sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 43.9%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Oviedo vs Eibar, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Oviedo and Eibar team pages or the Segunda División page.