Burgos vs Mon 12 Oct14:15 Scheduled
Granada CF — Segunda División: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
Burgos host Granada CF at Municipal El Plantio on Segunda División matchday 9
Burgos welcome Granada CF to Municipal El Plantio in Matchday 9 of the Segunda División, with Sergio Francisco's side eighth in the table on 14 points from eight games. Pacheta's Granada CF sit one place below in ninth, three points behind on 11 from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Burgos arrive having lost 2-1 at Almeria on 3 October, but that was one defeat in a five-game spell that also brought three wins and a goalless draw at Oviedo. Their 1-0 win over Eldense in their last home outing was one of two clean sheets in that sequence.
Granada CF have taken one win from their last five, a 3-2 victory at Real Sociedad II on 4 October. That followed home and away defeats to FC Andorra and Leganes, and they have conceded 12 goals across the five games. Burgos have not failed to score in any of their last five home games.
Across their last 5 meetings, Burgos won 1, Granada CF won 1, with 3 draws. The most recent meeting was Granada CF 0–1 Burgos on 16 May 2026. Granada CF's latest win in this sample was Burgos 1–3 Granada CF on 4 March 2023.
Burgos have won three of their last five and lost one, while Granada CF have won one and lost three, conceding 12 goals to Burgos's four.
Burgos have won four and drawn one of their last five home games, scoring 10 goals and keeping two clean sheets.
Burgos meet Granada CF in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 14:15 UTC at Municipal El Plantio. Referee: Salvador Lax.
Team pages: Burgos · Granada CF · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Burgos 54% · Draw 25% · Granada CF 21%
Burgos edge it on strength, despite Granada's possession — We give Burgos 54% mainly because they sit 101 points higher on our strength rating, 1549 to 1448, though Granada CF holding more of the ball in recent games (53% to 43%) pulls a little the other way. The draw sits at 25%, the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged slightly down because both sides' own recent games average 2.8 goals.
Why Burgos at 54%?
Burgos sit 101 points higher on our strength rating — 1549 to 1448. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.7% of 13,346 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 58–24–18.
Why only 54%?
Granada CF hold 10 more possession points (53 to 43 in recent games) across a 101-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 8,629 such games where the class table expected 40.6%.
Why the draw at 25%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.9%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,163.
What did we measure but not count?
Burgos are unbeaten in their last 16 home Segunda División games: 10 wins and 6 draws. The run began on 21 December 2025. Last recorded home league defeat: 8 December 2025 — Burgos 0–1 Albacete. Latest home league result: 27 September 2026 — Burgos 1–0 Eldense. Across 13,701 historical matches following an unbeaten home league run of at least six games, hosts won 56.0%, compared with 54.8% expected from team strength. Burgos have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Burgos vs Granada CF, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Burgos and Granada CF team pages or the Segunda División page.