Match preview
Tenerife host Girona at Heliodoro Rodríguez López in Segunda División
Tenerife welcome Girona to the Heliodoro Rodríguez López on matchday 9 of the Segunda División. The hosts sit 13th with 11 points from eight games, while Girona are seventh on 14 points from the same number of matches, a three-point gap separating the sides in the table.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Tenerife's last five games have brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with six goals scored and ten conceded. They lost 3-2 at Cordoba in their most recent outing, having drawn 1-1 at home to Cadiz the previous week. Álvaro's side kept one clean sheet in that spell.
Girona, managed by Quique Alvarez, arrive with three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five, scoring seven and conceding three. They have kept three clean sheets in that run, though their most recent game, a goalless draw at home to Mallorca, was one in which they failed to score.
Across their last 5 meetings, Tenerife won 2, Girona won 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Tenerife 1–3 Girona on 19 June 2022. Tenerife's latest win in this sample was Girona 0–1 Tenerife on 9 May 2022.
Girona have lost only once in their last five while Tenerife have won just one of theirs, and the visitors have conceded three goals to Tenerife's ten over that stretch.
Both sides have faced Cadiz and Castellón recently: Tenerife drew 1-1 with Cadiz and lost 5-0 at Castellón, while Girona won 2-1 at Cadiz and lost 2-1 to Castellón.
Tenerife meet Girona in the Segunda División (Regular Season - 9). Kick-off is Monday, 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Heliodoro Rodríguez López. Referee: Daniel Palencia Caballero.
Team pages: Tenerife · Girona · Segunda División
Sirius · Why these numbers
Tenerife 24% · Draw 26% · Girona 50%
Girona's stronger rating gives them the edge — We give Girona 50% mainly because they sit 183 points higher on our strength rating, 1619 to 1437, which outweighs the usual home advantage Tenerife start with. The draw sits at 26%, starting from the usual 25% for a gap this size and nudged up slightly because both sides' own recent games average 2.5 goals.
Why Girona at 50%?
Girona sit 183 points higher on our strength rating — 1437 to 1619. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,682 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 25–27–48.
Why only 50%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 50% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Tenerife at 24%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,308. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Girona have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than Tenerife in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Tenerife are newly promoted — game 9 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides are said to struggle, but our rating already carries most of it: across 3,012 first-ten games since 2016 they won 26.8% where the rating expected 28.1% — inside the noise band, below it in six of the ten full seasons we hold and about level last season. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Tenerife vs Girona, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Segunda División fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Tenerife and Girona team pages or the Segunda División page.