Match Events
- 10′Mantova, yellow card:Foul
- 22′Mantova, goal:0–1assist
- 45′Mantova, yellow card:F. ModestoUnsportsmanlike conduct
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′Mantova, substitution:off
- 56′Carrarese, yellow card:Argument
- 57′Mantova, substitution:off
- 59′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 59′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 61′Mantova, goal:0–2assist
- 67′Mantova, substitution:off
- 67′Mantova, substitution:off
- 75′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 80′Carrarese, goal:1–2assist
- 84′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 84′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 90+2′Mantova, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 2
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goals
Assists
Player Ratings
Carrarese
Mantova
Match report
Mantova hold off Carrarese fightback to win Serie B opener
Mantova opened their Serie B campaign with a 2-1 win away to Carrarese at the Stadio dei Marmi, with the visitors doing enough in the opening period to control the outcome. Francesco Ruocco put Mantova ahead in the 22nd minute, finishing off an assist from Ettore Gliozzi to send the away side in front at half-time.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Mantova doubled their advantage early in the second half when Rareş Ilie converted a chance created by Alessio Castellini in the 61st minute, making it 0-2. Carrarese pushed for a way back and got one through Pietro Pinelli, who scored in the 80th minute with Moustapha Cissé providing the assist, but the hosts could not find a leveller in the time that remained.
The match finished with Mantova having produced the sharper edge going forward despite Carrarese enjoying slightly more of the ball, and the away side's early and mid-second-half strikes proved decisive. Carrarese's response through Pinelli set up a nervy finish but arrived too late to alter the result.
Ruocco scored the opening goal and was rated the top performer on the pitch at 7.9, giving Mantova the platform they needed. Pinelli's late strike for Carrarese also earned him a strong 7.7 rating despite the defeat.
Mantova's superior xG of 1.17 against Carrarese's 0.86 reflected the away side's greater efficiency in the final third.
Mantova won 2–1 away against Carrarese (half-time 0–1).
Carrarese met Mantova in the Serie B (Regular Season - 1). Kick-off was Saturday, 22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC at Stadio dei Marmi. Referee: Andrea Calzavara.
Key moments
- 22' Goal: Francesco Ruocco (assist: Ettore Gliozzi) — 0–1
- 61' Goal: Rareş Ilie (assist: Alessio Castellini) — 0–2
- 80' Goal: Pietro Pinelli (assist: Moustapha Cissé) — 1–2
Starting line-ups
Carrarese (3-5-2)
Mantova (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Carrarese 34%, the draw 38%, Mantova 28%. It finished Carrarese 1–2 Mantova.
Home ground outweighs Mantova's rating edge — Mantova are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground plus Mantova's hot finishing due to cool give Carrarese the lean. The draw at 38% is the likeliest single result, helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Carrarese at 34%?
Home ground, against the rating. Mantova sit 58 points higher on our strength rating — 1416 to 1473. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,522 such games. Mantova scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 29.0% of 1,446 games, vs 28.9% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 34%?
Because Mantova are the stronger side on our strength rating. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.3% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (26.0% vs 30.2%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,013 games vs 44.9% across all 99,210 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Carrarese's column. Across 10,641 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.1 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw the likeliest result?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,608. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.4 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Mantova have gained 83 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.5% of 12,189 such games vs 40.7% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Last 4 between them: Carrarese 0 wins, 3 draws, Mantova 1 win. Most recently Mantova 1–1 Carrarese, 6 months ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 28.1% of 5578 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Carrarese vs Mantova final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Carrarese and Mantova team pages or the Serie B page.