Match Events
- 33′Padova, yellow card:N. CalabroDissent
- Half-time
- 46′Padova, substitution:off
- 46′Padova, substitution:off
- 53′Padova, yellow card:Foul
- 56′Padova, substitution:off
- 59′Ascoli, yellow card:Argument
- 59′Padova, yellow card:Argument
- 60′Padova, substitution:off
- 62′Ascoli, yellow card:Dissent
- 63′Padova, goal:1–0assist
- 71′Ascoli, substitution:off
- 72′Ascoli, substitution:Matteo Brunorioff
- 72′Ascoli, substitution:offamine chakir
- 72′Ascoli, substitution:off
- 72′Padova, substitution:off
- 77′Padova, yellow card:Foul
- 82′Ascoli, substitution:off
- 90′Padova, yellow card:Foul
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
Top Performers
Best rated
Goal
Assist
Player Ratings
Padova
Ascoli
Match report
Galazzi strike gives Padova narrow win over Ascoli
Padova beat Ascoli 1-0 in a Serie B round four fixture at Stadio Euganeo, moving level on points with their visitors despite sitting a place below them in the table before kick-off. The only goal arrived well into the second half and proved enough to separate two sides who had each posted seven points from their opening four matches.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came in the 63rd minute when Nicolas Galazzi converted an assist from Matteo Cocchi to put Padova ahead. The hosts held that advantage to the finish, with the scoreline unchanged from the moment Galazzi struck through to the final whistle.
Padova dominated possession with 65 percent of the ball and outshot Ascoli 20 to 11, including a narrow edge in shots on target, five to four. The home side did concede more fouls, picking up four yellow cards to Ascoli's two, but neither team saw a player sent off.
Galazzi scored the decisive goal and finished as the highest-rated player on the pitch with a mark of 8.14. Cocchi also featured prominently, supplying the assist for the winner in a 7.5-rated display.
Padova's 65 percent possession share reflected their control throughout a contest they largely dictated at home.
Padova beat Ascoli 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Padova met Ascoli in the Serie B (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Saturday, 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC at Stadio Euganeo. Referee: Giuseppe Collu.
Key moments
- 63' Goal: Nicolas Galazzi (assist: Matteo Cocchi) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Padova (3-5-2)
Ascoli (4-2-3-1)
- 1 Samuele Vitale
- 19 Abdoul Guiébré
- 33 Nicholas Rizzo
- 30 Marcos Curado
- 62 Tommaso Milanese
- 4 Samuele Damiani
- 8 Giovanni Corradini
- 15 Simone D'Uffizi
- 77 Don Bolsius
- 21 Giacomo De Pieri
- 9 A. Chakir
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Padova 30%, the draw 40%, Ascoli 30%. It finished Padova 1–0 Ascoli.
Home ground cancels Ascoli's rating edge — Ascoli are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground leaves Padova and Ascoli level. The draw at 40% is the likeliest single result, helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why are Padova and Ascoli level?
Home ground, against the rating. Ascoli sit 75 points higher on our strength rating — 1386 to 1461. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 33.0% of 10,621 such games.
Why only 30% each?
Because Ascoli are the stronger side on our strength rating. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.2% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.2%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,045 games vs 44.9% across all 100,077 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Ascoli hold 11 more possession points (55 to 44 in recent games) across a 75-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,670 such games where the class table expected 41.3%.
Why is the draw the likeliest result?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,797. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.3 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Padova have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Ascoli are newly promoted — game 4 of their first ten at this level, where our rating knows them least. Promoted sides ran below their rating in nine of the last ten seasons — 26.5% wins in their first ten games where the rating expected 30.0% (2,793 games since 2012), fading but still visible through game nineteen. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Padova vs Ascoli final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Padova and Ascoli team pages or the Serie B page.