Match Events
- 40′Carrarese, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time
- 46′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 53′Catanzaro, yellow card:Foul
- 56′Carrarese, yellow card:
- 62′Carrarese, yellow card:Gabriele CioffiDissent
- 67′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 67′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 67′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 67′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 67′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 76′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 76′Carrarese, substitution:off
- 78′Catanzaro, yellow card:Foul
- 81′Catanzaro, substitution:off
- 83′Catanzaro, goal:1–0assist
- 87′Carrarese, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 0
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Goal
Assist
Player Ratings
Catanzaro
Carrarese
Match report
Iemmello strike gives Catanzaro first win of the season over Carrarese
Catanzaro edged Carrarese 1-0 in a Serie B round four fixture at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, with Pietro Iemmello's 83rd-minute goal proving the only difference between two sides still searching for consistency this season.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The breakthrough came late, as Iemmello converted an assist from Simone Pafundi to make it 1-0, a goal that stood as the game's decisive moment. Carrarese, who had drawn a blank at half-time along with their hosts, could not find a response before the final whistle.
Catanzaro dominated territorially, holding 67 percent of possession and firing 20 shots to Carrarese's 11, though only two of those efforts were on target. The home side also won five corners to their visitors' two, reflecting a night of sustained pressure that finally told through Iemmello's late intervention.
Iemmello settled the contest with the only goal of the match, earning an 8.2 rating for his decisive late finish, while Pafundi's assist also stood out in a productive display for the pair.
Catanzaro's 67 percent share of possession underlined their control throughout a match they dominated territorially without needing to be clinical.
Catanzaro beat Carrarese 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Catanzaro met Carrarese in the Serie B (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Saturday, 12 September 2026, 15:15 UTC at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo. Referee: Davide Di Marco.
Key moments
- 83' Goal: Pietro Iemmello (assist: Simone Pafundi) — 1–0
Starting line-ups
Catanzaro (3-4-2-1)
Carrarese (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Catanzaro 52%, the draw 36%, Carrarese 12%. It finished Catanzaro 1–0 Carrarese.
Catanzaro's rating edge, but the draw is in play — Catanzaro are the stronger side on our strength rating, and their control of the ball on top gives Catanzaro the lean. The draw at 36% is helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Catanzaro at 52%?
Catanzaro sit 118 points higher on our strength rating — 1511 to 1393. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge at home won 57.1% of 12,797 such games. Catanzaro hold 10 more possession points (56 to 46 in recent games) across a 118-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 75–150-point rating gap won 42.6% of 8,670 such games where the class table expected 41.3%. The 300 most similar past games finished 52–29–19.
Why only 52%?
Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.2% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.2%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,045 games vs 44.9% across all 100,077 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Catanzaro's column. Across 11,058 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Carrarese win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.2%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,797. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.3 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Catanzaro come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals and 16 departures over the summer. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Last 4 between them: Catanzaro 1 win, 3 draws, Carrarese 0 wins. Most recently Carrarese 3–3 Catanzaro, 6 months ago. Fixture history hasn't carried forward once class is level: past leaders won just 43.1% of 5088 such games — no measurable edge, 0 points.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Catanzaro vs Carrarese final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Catanzaro and Carrarese team pages or the Serie B page.