Match Events
- 22′Sudtirol, yellow card:Foul
- 35′Sudtirol, goal:1–0assist
- Half-time1 – 0
- 60′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 63′Sudtirol, yellow card:Foul
- 68′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 68′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 68′Modena, substitution:off
- 72′Sudtirol, yellow card:Foul
- 77′Modena, substitution:off
- 77′Modena, substitution:off
- 79′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 79′Sudtirol, substitution:off
- 88′Modena, goal:1–1assist
- 90+2′Modena, yellow card:Foul
- 90+3′Modena, substitution:off
- 90+4′Modena, substitution:off
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Key Stats
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Sudtirol
Modena
Match report
Modena snatch late point at Sudtirol despite dominant display
Sudtirol and Modena shared the points in a 1-1 draw in Serie B's fourth round at Stadio Marco Druso, a result that leaves both sides in the upper reaches of the table despite the visitors dominating for long spells.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Alvin Okoro gave the hosts the lead in the 35th minute, finishing off a move started by Salvatore Molina to send Sudtirol in front at the interval. That goal proved decisive for most of the contest, with the home side clinging to their narrow advantage deep into the second half.
Modena's pressure eventually told in the 88th minute when Giuseppe Ambrosino converted an assist from Daniel Tonoli to level the score at 1-1, snatching a point in the closing stages after being second best for much of the afternoon.
Despite Modena enjoying 68 percent of possession and outshooting their hosts 18 to 11, it was Sudtirol who led for most of the match, only for the visitors' late intervention to salvage a draw that keeps both clubs in touch near the top of the standings.
Alessandro Plizzari earned the highest rating on the pitch at 8.8, his performance in goal helping Sudtirol withstand sustained Modena pressure for long periods. Giuseppe Ambrosino also impressed, scoring the late equaliser that rescued a point for the visitors.
Modena's 68 percent share of possession underlined their control of the ball, even if it was Sudtirol who led for most of the match.
Sudtirol and Modena drew 1–1 (half-time 1–0).
Sudtirol met Modena in the Serie B (Regular Season - 4). Kick-off was Saturday, 12 September 2026, 13:00 UTC at Stadio Druso. Referee: Paride Tremolada.
Key moments
- 35' Goal: Alvin Okoro (assist: Salvatore Molina) — 1–0
- 88' Goal: Giuseppe Ambrosino (assist: Daniel Tonoli) — 1–1
Starting line-ups
Sudtirol (3-4-2-1)
Modena (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Sudtirol 32%, the draw 40%, Modena 28%. It finished Sudtirol 1–1 Modena.
Home ground outweighs Modena's rating edge — Modena are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground gives Sudtirol the lean. The draw at 40% is the likeliest single result, helped by a draw-heavy league.
Why Sudtirol at 32%?
Home ground, against the rating. Modena sit 66 points higher on our strength rating — 1415 to 1480. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 33.0% of 10,621 such games.
Why only 32%?
Because Modena are the stronger side on our strength rating. Serie B home sides under-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (32.2% vs 24.9% norm) and away wins (26.1% vs 30.2%). Serie B homes won 41.7% of 4,045 games vs 44.9% across all 100,077 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Sudtirol's column. Across 11,058 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.7% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw the likeliest result?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.2% of 27,797. Serie B runs draw-heavy, adding 7.3 points. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Sudtirol sit -0.33 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Sudtirol come into this after a busy window — 14 arrivals, 16 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336).
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Sudtirol vs Modena final score and result, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Serie B fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
The full match report above covers the goals, key moments and stats. Explore more on the Sudtirol and Modena team pages or the Serie B page.