Dinamo Zagreb vs 15.10.26 19:001 – 0Full Time
Anderlecht — UEFA Europa League: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Beljo penalty in 90+6 gives Dinamo Zagreb late win over Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb beat Anderlecht 1-0 at Stadion Maksimir in the second matchday of the Europa League league stage, with Dion Beljo scoring a penalty in the 90+6 minute to settle a game that had been goalless throughout the first 90 minutes.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
The score was 0-0 at half-time and stayed that way as the match turned scrappy, with 21 fouls from the hosts and 13 from the visitors. Zagreb had 13 shots to Anderlecht's 10 and won six corners to two, yet it was the Belgian side who tested the goalkeeper more, putting six shots on target to three.
Anderlecht held 55% of the possession and Zagreb 45%, and the expected goals figures of 1.82 to 1.18 favoured the hosts. Each side was shown two yellow cards, and nobody was sent off. Beljo's late spot-kick ended a run of three games without a win for Dinamo Zagreb.
Dinamo Zagreb host NEC Nijmegen in the Europa League on Thursday 22 October. Anderlecht are away to Beerschot VA in the Belgian Cup on Sunday 18 October.
Dominik Kotarski earned the highest rating of any player on the pitch, 8.44, as Dinamo Zagreb's goalkeeper in a match in which Anderlecht put six shots on target and did not score.
Anderlecht put six of their ten shots on target, against three of 13 for Dinamo Zagreb.
Dinamo Zagreb beat Anderlecht 1–0 (half-time 0–0).
Dinamo Zagreb met Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League (League Stage - 2). Kick-off was Thursday, 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC at Stadion Maksimir. Referee: Orel Grinfeld.
Team pages: Dinamo Zagreb · Anderlecht · UEFA Europa League
Key moments
- 90+6' Goal (penalty): Dion Beljo — 1–0 · Watch Dion Beljo's goal video (90+6')
Starting line-ups
Dinamo Zagreb (4-1-4-1)
Anderlecht (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Dinamo Zagreb 36%, the draw 28%, Anderlecht 36%. It finished Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 Anderlecht.
Level forecast as Anderlecht's edges meet home advantage — Nobody leads at 36% each, because Anderlecht's cold finishing streak, which tends to bounce back, and their greater share of the ball are balanced by Dinamo Zagreb's usual home advantage. The draw sits at 28%, starting from 27% for sides this level, lowered by the Europa League's usual draw rate but raised by ball control, typical scoring and that finishing streak.
Why are Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht level?
Home ground, mostly. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1598 to 1627. Sides this close won 42.6% of 14,820 home games (draw 27.1%, visitors 30.3%). UEFA Europa League home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (23.2% vs 25.4% norm). UEFA Europa League homes won 47.0% of 4,456 games vs 44.6% across all 101,206 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 36% each?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Anderlecht sit -0.35 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 31.5% of 1,370 games, vs 27.9% for visitors finishing normally. Anderlecht hold 8 more possession points (60 to 52 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.8% across 5,480 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 28%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.1%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,322. UEFA Europa League produces fewer draws than most, taking 2.2 points off. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Europa League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 Anderlecht. Explore more on the Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht team pages or the UEFA Europa League page.