Luxembourg vs 06.10.26 18:450 – 2Full TimeBulgaria — UEFA Nations League: stats, lineups & analysis

Match report

Bulgaria stuns Luxembourg with first-half double at the Stade de Luxembourg

Bulgaria won 2-0 away at Luxembourg in a UEFA Nations League League C fixture, taking a 2-0 lead into the break and holding it to the final whistle. The result moved Bulgaria to third in Group 4 on four points, while Luxembourg remained fourth on three despite playing at the Stade de Luxembourg.

AI-assisted match report written from official match data.

The visitors struck twice inside the opening 34 minutes. Kristiyan Balov opened the scoring in the 19th minute, finishing an assist from Emil Tsenov, before Atanas Iliev doubled the advantage in the 34th minute after being set up by Georgi Rusev. Luxembourg could not find a way back and the score stayed 0-2 through to full time.

Despite conceding twice, Luxembourg dominated territory, holding 63 percent of possession and outshooting Bulgaria 18 to 13, including 7 shots on target to 5. Bulgaria were the more disciplined side defensively in terms of bookings, picking up a single yellow card compared to three shown to Luxembourg, while fouls were level at 15 apiece.

Atanas Iliev scored Bulgaria's second goal and was rated the top performer of the match with an 8.2, with teammates Daniel Naumov and goalscorer Kristiyan Balov also among the standout contributors.

Luxembourg controlled 63 percent of possession yet still finished the match on the losing side, underlining how little their territorial dominance translated into the scoreline.

Bulgaria won 2–0 away against Luxembourg (half-time 0–2).

Luxembourg met Bulgaria in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 4). Kick-off was Tuesday, 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade de Luxembourg. Referee: Andris Treimanis.

Team pages: Luxembourg · Bulgaria · UEFA Nations League

Key moments

19' Goal: Kristiyan Balov (assist: Emil Tsenov) — 0–1
34' Goal: Atanas Iliev (assist: Georgi Rusev) — 0–2

Starting line-ups

Luxembourg (4-1-4-1)

Bulgaria (4-2-3-1)

Sirius · Why these numbers

Before kick-off Sirius gave Luxembourg 51%, the draw 26%, Bulgaria 23%. It finished Luxembourg 0–2 Bulgaria.

Level sides, Luxembourg's control of the ball swings it — Nothing separates them on our strength rating, and Luxembourg's control of the ball gives Luxembourg the lean. The draw at 26% is what level sides usually produce.

Why Luxembourg in front?

Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1437 to 1408. Sides this close won 45.9% of 13,647 home games (draw 27.4%, visitors 26.6%). Luxembourg hold 12 more possession points (47 to 35 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 48.3% of 5,122 games, vs 43.9% when styles were level.

Why only 51%?

Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 26% and Bulgaria at 23%.

Why the draw at 26%?

Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.4%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 25,107.

What did we measure but not count?

Luxembourg sit -0.41 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Bulgaria are 1 game into a new manager (A. Ribarski), appointed 5 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.

Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab

About this match

On this page: the Luxembourg vs Bulgaria final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.

Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.

Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Luxembourg 0–2 Bulgaria. Explore more on the Luxembourg and Bulgaria team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.