Match report
Estonia and Iceland play out goalless draw in Nations League clash
Estonia and Iceland shared a goalless draw at A. Le Coq Arena in a League C group fixture, a result that left both sides still searching for a breakthrough on matchday four. Neither goalkeeper was beaten across the ninety minutes, with the sides heading in level at half-time before failing to find a way through after the break.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Iceland dominated possession with 62 percent of the ball and edged the shot count 13 to 12, yet Estonia proved the more direct side in the final third, forcing three shots on target to Iceland's one. The hosts also won far more corners, seven to Iceland's three, though that territorial edge never translated into a decisive opening.
The match remained niggly throughout, with ten fouls from Estonia and nine from Iceland, and a yellow card shown to a player on each side, but neither team's discipline problems escalated further as Dickinson kept control of a tightly contested, goalless affair.
Goalkeeper Hákon Valdimarsson was the top-rated performer on the pitch with a 7.45 rating, underlining the role his saves played in preserving Iceland's clean sheet.
Despite seeing just 38 percent of possession, Estonia managed more shots on target than Iceland, three to one.
Estonia and Iceland drew 0–0 (half-time 0–0).
Estonia met Iceland in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 4). Kick-off was Tuesday, 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at A. Le Coq Arena. Referee: David Dickinson.
Team pages: Estonia · Iceland · UEFA Nations League
Starting line-ups
Estonia (3-5-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Estonia 25%, the draw 23%, Iceland 52%. It finished Estonia 0–0 Iceland.
Iceland's rating gap outweighs Estonia's home ground — Iceland are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Iceland's 52%. The draw at 23% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Iceland at 52%?
Iceland sit 186 points higher on our strength rating — 1380 to 1566. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.6% of 6,706 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–23–49.
Why only 52%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 52% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Estonia at 25%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,831. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Iceland have averaged 9 percentage points more possession than Estonia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Iceland scored +0.67 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,841 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Estonia vs Iceland final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Estonia 0–0 Iceland. Explore more on the Estonia and Iceland team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.