Match report
Merino double sinks ten-man Croatia as Spain come from behind
Spain came from behind to beat Croatia 1-2 at Stadion Poljud in a UEFA Nations League League A fixture, overturning a first-half deficit after Croatia had Ivan Perišić sent off late on. The result lifted Luis de la Fuente's side top of League A Group 3, while Croatia stayed third.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Perišić put Croatia ahead in the 17th minute to send the hosts in 1-0 up at half-time. Spain levelled on 61 minutes through Mikel Merino, set up by Dani Olmo, before Perišić saw red in the 79th minute to leave Croatia a man short. Merino struck again in the 88th minute, this time assisted by Martín Zubimendi, to complete the turnaround and seal the win.
Spain dominated territory throughout, holding 72 percent of possession to Croatia's 28, though the shot count finished level at 10 apiece. Croatia's numerical disadvantage after Perišić's dismissal compounded a difficult second half in which the visitors found their decisive moments.
Mikel Merino scored both of Spain's goals, including the 88th-minute winner, and finished with a match-high rating of 8.93.
Spain controlled the ball for 72 percent of the match, a dominance in possession that Croatia's resistance for long periods made hard to translate into clear chances until late on.
Spain won 2–1 away against Croatia (half-time 1–0).
Croatia met Spain in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 4). Kick-off was Tuesday, 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stadion Poljud. Referee: Erik Lambrechts.
Team pages: Croatia · Spain · UEFA Nations League
Key moments
- 17' Goal: Ivan Perišić — 1–0 · Watch Ivan Perišić's goal video (17')
- 61' Goal: Mikel Merino (assist: Dani Olmo) — 1–1
- 79' Red card: Ivan Perišić
- 88' Goal: Mikel Merino (assist: Martín Zubimendi) — 1–2
Starting line-ups
Croatia (4-5-1)
Spain (4-2-3-1)
- 23 Unai Simón
- 22 Marc Cucurella
- 14 Aymeric Laporte
- 5 Pau Cubarsí
- 12 Marc Pubill
- 20 Pedri
- 16 Rodri
- 15 Álex Baena
- 10 Dani Olmo
- 19 Lamine Yamal
- 21 Mikel Oyarzabal
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Croatia 19%, the draw 19%, Spain 62%. It finished Croatia 1–2 Spain.
Spain's rating gap outweighs Croatia's home ground — Spain are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Spain's 62%. The draw at 19% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Spain at 62%?
Spain sit 317 points higher on our strength rating — 1864 to 2181. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.6% of 5,930 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 19–22–59.
Why only 62%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 62% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 19% and Croatia at 19%.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 21.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.4 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,831. The goals environment takes 1.8 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Spain have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than Croatia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Spain have gained 103 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.0% of 11,177 such games vs 40.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Croatia vs Spain final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this UEFA Nations League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Croatia 1–2 Spain. Explore more on the Croatia and Spain team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.