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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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ArmeniaCyprusArmeniaCyprusMatch preview
Armenia host Cyprus in League C Group 2 on matchday five
Armenia and Cyprus meet on matchday five of the UEFA Nations League in League C Group 2, with Eghishe Melikyan's side third in the table on four points from four games. Apostolos Mantzios's Cyprus sit second on seven points from the same number of matches, three clear of their hosts and one place higher.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Armenia arrive off a goalless draw away to Montenegro, their latest game after a 2-0 defeat to Cyprus on 2 October. Before that they lost 3-2 at home to Montenegro and beat Latvia 2-0 in their opening game of this run. Across their last five they have conceded 14 goals, nine of them in a defeat by Portugal.
Cyprus have won their last two, beating Armenia 2-0 and then Latvia 2-1, both at home, after a 0-0 draw away to Latvia and a 2-1 loss in Montenegro. Over their last five they have scored five and conceded five, with two clean sheets.
The most recent meeting was Cyprus 2–0 Armenia on 2 October 2026.
Cyprus have won two of their last five and Armenia one, and Armenia have conceded 14 goals in that span to Cyprus's five.
Both sides have played Latvia and Montenegro recently: Armenia beat Latvia 2-0 and lost 3-2 to Montenegro at home, while Cyprus drew 0-0 and won 2-1 against Latvia and lost 2-1 to Montenegro.
Armenia meet Cyprus in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 5). Kick-off is Thursday, 12 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Team pages: Armenia · Cyprus · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Armenia 51% · Draw 26% · Cyprus 23%
Armenia's strength edge gives them a slight lean — Armenia sit 55 points higher on our strength rating, 1394 to 1339, and with the usual home advantage on top we give them 51% against Cyprus's 23%. The draw sits at 26%, close to the usual 27% for a gap this size, nudged down slightly because both sides' recent games average 2.8 goals.
Why Armenia at 51%?
Armenia sit 55 points higher on our strength rating — 1394 to 1339. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,130 such games.
Why only 51%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 51% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Cyprus at 23%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Armenia (10 fully-tracked matches with us) and Cyprus (12) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Armenia vs Cyprus, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Armenia and Cyprus team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.