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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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England host Croatia in Nations League Group 3 clash
England and Croatia meet on matchday 5 of League A in the UEFA Nations League, with Thomas Tuchel's side second in Group 3 on nine points from four games. Croatia, managed by Slaven Bilić, sit third on three points from the same number of matches, six behind the hosts and one place lower in the table.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
England arrive on a run of three straight wins, the latest a 3-0 home victory over Czech Republic on 6 October. Across their last five games they have won four and lost one, scoring 20 goals and conceding seven, with three clean sheets. That sequence includes a 7-0 win away to Croatia on 3 October.
Croatia are on a run of three consecutive defeats, the latest a 2-1 home loss to Spain on 6 October. They have lost four of their last five games, winning only at Czech Republic, and have conceded 16 goals while scoring five, without keeping a clean sheet in that spell.
Across their last 2 meetings, England won 2, Croatia won 0, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Croatia 0–7 England on 3 October 2026.
England have won four of their last five and conceded seven goals, while Croatia have lost four of their last five and shipped 16.
Both sides have faced Spain and Czech Republic recently: England beat Czech Republic twice and lost to Spain, while Croatia lost to Spain twice and won at Czech Republic.
England meet Croatia in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 5). Kick-off is Thursday, 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Team pages: England · Croatia · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
England 70% · Draw 17% · Croatia 13%
England's strength rating gap makes this one-sided — England lead mainly because they sit 237 points higher on our strength rating, 2083 to 1846, and the usual home advantage adds to that, so we give them 70%. The draw sits at 17%, a little under the usual 19% for a gap this size, because both teams' own recent games average 4.1 goals.
Why England at 70%?
England sit 237 points higher on our strength rating — 2083 to 1846. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,097 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 69–19–12.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 70% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 17% and Croatia at 13%.
Why is the draw only 17%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 18.9%. These teams' recent games average 4.1 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.6 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
England have gained 70 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.1% of 12,006 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Croatia are 4 games into a new manager (S. Bilić), appointed 47 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for England vs Croatia, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the England and Croatia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.