Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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TürkiyeBelgiumTürkiyeBelgiumMatch preview
Türkiye seek first points in League A against Belgium
Türkiye and Belgium meet on matchday five of League A, Group 1, with the hosts bottom of the table. Vincenzo Montella's side have played four games and collected no points, while Mark van Bommel's Belgium sit third on six points, one place and six points ahead.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Türkiye arrive on the back of a difficult run: they have lost their last four games. Their most recent outing was a 3-1 defeat away to Italy on 5 October, following a 3-0 loss at Belgium three days earlier. Across their last five, they have scored five goals and conceded 13.
Belgium have been more productive but are also coming off a setback, a 4-1 defeat away to France on 5 October. Before that they beat Türkiye 3-0 and Italy 2-0 away from home. In their last five away games they have won three, scoring 13 goals, with one clean sheet.
The most recent meeting was Belgium 3–0 Türkiye on 2 October 2026.
Türkiye have lost four of their last five games and conceded 13 goals, whereas Belgium have won two of five and scored seven.
Both sides have faced France and Italy recently: Belgium beat Italy 2-0 away, while Türkiye lost 4-1 at home to Italy and 1-0 at home to France.
Türkiye meet Belgium in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 5). Kick-off is Thursday, 12 November 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Team pages: Türkiye · Belgium · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Türkiye 36% · Draw 26% · Belgium 38%
Belgium's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Belgium sit 148 points higher on our strength rating, 1915 to 1766, but Türkiye's home advantage and a cold finishing spell, where streaks like this have tended to bounce back, keep it close at 38% to 36%. The draw sits at 26%, just below the usual 28% for a gap this size, nudged down by that finishing streak and a typical scoring level in both sides' recent games.
Why Belgium at 38%?
Belgium sit 148 points higher on our strength rating — 1915 to 1766. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 32–26–42.
Why only 38%?
Türkiye sit -0.57 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Türkiye have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than Belgium in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Türkiye have shed 68 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Türkiye vs Belgium, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Türkiye and Belgium team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.