San Marino vs Belarus — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
San MarinoBelarusSan MarinoBelarusMatch preview
San Marino host Belarus in UEFA Nations League C, Group 1 meeting
San Marino welcome Belarus on matchday five of League C, Group 1, with the hosts bottom of the table. Roberto Cevoli's side have played four games and collected no points, sitting fourth, while Viktor Goncharenko's Belarus are second on seven points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
The gap between the sides is two places and seven points, with Belarus the higher-placed team. San Marino's last five games have all ended in defeat, with two goals scored and 23 conceded, and they failed to score in three of them. Their latest outing was a 2-1 loss away to Albania.
Belarus arrive having won their last two, beating San Marino 4-0 on 3 October and Finland 1-0 on 6 October. Across their last five games they have won two, drawn two and lost once, scoring five and conceding two, with four clean sheets, the most recent of them against Finland.
The most recent meeting was Belarus 4–0 San Marino on 3 October 2026.
Belarus have won two of their last five and kept four clean sheets, while San Marino have lost all five, conceding 23 goals.
Both sides have faced Albania and Finland: San Marino lost 0-3 to Albania and 0-7 to Finland at home, while Belarus drew 0-0 away to Finland and beat them 1-0 at home.
San Marino meet Belarus in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 5). Kick-off is Thursday, 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Team pages: San Marino · Belarus · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
San Marino 10% · Draw 15% · Belarus 75%
Belarus well ahead on our strength rating — We give Belarus 75% because they sit 664 points higher on our strength rating, 1487 to 823, which far outweighs the usual home advantage San Marino start with. The draw sits at 15%, just under the usual 16% for a gap this size, because both sides' own recent games average 3.9 goals.
Why Belarus at 75%?
Belarus sit 664 points higher on our strength rating — 1487 to 823. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 9–15–76.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 75% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 15% and San Marino at 10%.
Why is the draw only 15%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 16.4%. These teams' recent games average 3.9 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 1.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Belarus have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than San Marino in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Belarus are 1 game into a new manager (V. Goncharenko), appointed 42 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for San Marino vs Belarus, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the San Marino and Belarus team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.