Montenegro vs Latvia — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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MontenegroLatviaMontenegroLatviaMatch preview
Montenegro host Latvia with League C Group 2 lead on the line
Montenegro and Latvia meet on matchday five of League C, Group 2, in the UEFA Nations League, with the home side top of the table on 10 points from four games. Robert Prosinečki's team have taken three wins and a draw from their last four outings, scoring nine goals in their last five games overall.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Latvia, managed by Paolo Nicolato, sit fourth on one point from four games, nine points behind the group leaders. They have lost their last two matches, going down 2-1 to Montenegro on 2 October and then 2-1 away to Cyprus on 5 October.
Montenegro come into the fixture having drawn 0-0 with Armenia on 5 October, a result that ended a run of three straight wins. Latvia's last five games produced three goals and two clean sheets, and they failed to score in two of them.
Across their last 3 meetings, Montenegro won 2, Latvia won 0, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Latvia 1–2 Montenegro on 2 October 2026.
Montenegro have won three of their last five and drawn one, while Latvia have won one, drawn one and lost three.
Both sides have faced Armenia and Cyprus recently: Montenegro beat Cyprus 2-1 and Armenia 3-2 away, while Latvia lost 2-0 at Armenia and drew 0-0 and lost 2-1 against Cyprus.
Montenegro meet Latvia in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 5). Kick-off is Thursday, 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Team pages: Montenegro · Latvia · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Montenegro 68% · Draw 18% · Latvia 14%
Strength gap puts Montenegro clearly in front — Montenegro sit 209 points higher on our strength rating, 1489 to 1280, and that gap, helped by the usual home advantage, is why we give them 68% against 14% for Latvia. The draw sits at 18%, close to the usual draw rate of about 19% for a strength gap this size, with nothing pushing it up or down.
Why Montenegro at 68%?
Montenegro sit 209 points higher on our strength rating — 1489 to 1280. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,097 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 67–18–15.
Why only 68%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 68% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 18% and Latvia at 14%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 18.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Montenegro have averaged 9 percentage points more possession than Latvia in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Last five: Montenegro W-W-W-D, Latvia L-D-L-L — Montenegro are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Montenegro vs Latvia, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Montenegro and Latvia team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.