Czech Republic vs Spain — UEFA Nations League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
Czech RepublicSpainCzech RepublicSpainMatch preview
Czech Republic vs Spain — the facts
Czech Republic meet Spain in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 5). Kick-off is Thursday, 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Team pages: Czech Republic · Spain · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Czech Republic 13% · Draw 13% · Spain 74%
Spain's big strength edge makes this one-sided — Spain sit 520 points higher on our strength rating, 2186 to 1666, a gap far too wide for Czech Republic's usual home advantage to close, so we give Spain 74%. The draw sits at 13%, close to the usual draw rate of about 14% for a strength gap this size.
Why Spain at 74%?
Spain sit 520 points higher on our strength rating — 2186 to 1666. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge on the road won 65.7% of 6,325 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 12–12–76.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 74% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 13% and Czech Republic at 13%.
Why is the draw only 13%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 13.9%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Spain have averaged 20 percentage points more possession than Czech Republic in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Czech Republic have shed 69 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Czech Republic vs Spain, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Czech Republic and Spain team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.