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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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ItalyFranceItalyFranceMatch preview
Italy host group leaders France on Nations League matchday five
Italy and France meet in League A, Group 1 on matchday five, with the group's top two sides facing each other. France lead the table on 10 points from four games, while Italy sit second on seven, three points behind. Zinédine Zidane's side arrive having beaten Belgium 4-1 in their most recent outing.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Roberto Mancini's Italy come off a 3-1 home win over Türkiye on 5 October, their second victory over that opponent in the space of a week after a 4-1 away win on 28 September. Between those results came a 1-1 draw away to France on 2 October, so the two sides have shared a result already this autumn.
France have won three of their last five games, drawn one and lost one, scoring 11 goals and conceding eight. Italy have won two of their last five, drawn two and lost one, with nine scored and six conceded. France have kept two clean sheets in that stretch; Italy have kept none.
Across their last 3 meetings, Italy won 1, France won 1, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was France 1–1 Italy on 2 October 2026. Italy's latest win in this sample was France 1–3 Italy on 6 September 2024. France's latest win in this sample was Italy 1–3 France on 17 November 2024.
France have won three of their last five and Italy two, though Italy have failed to score in one of theirs and have no clean sheet in the run.
France have won all five of their latest away games, scoring 10 and conceding two, while Italy have won two of their latest four home games.
Italy meet France in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 5). Kick-off is Thursday, 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Team pages: Italy · France · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Italy 25% · Draw 23% · France 52%
France's strength edge outweighs Italy's home advantage — France lead because our strength rating puts them 164 points higher, 2075 to 1911, which outweighs the usual home advantage Italy get. The draw starts at 25.3%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 23% because both sides' own recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why France at 52%?
France sit 164 points higher on our strength rating — 2075 to 1911. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.5% of 7,223 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–23–49.
Why only 52%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 52% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Italy at 25%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
France have averaged 6 percentage points more possession than Italy in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. France scored +0.32 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Italy vs France, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Italy and France team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.