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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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AlbaniaFinlandAlbaniaFinlandMatch preview
Albania host Finland with League C Group 1 leadership in view
Albania welcome Finland in League C Group 1 on matchday five of the UEFA Nations League, and the home side sit top of the table on nine points from four games. Rolando Maran's team have won three of their last five, with their most recent outing a 2-1 home win over San Marino.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Finland, managed by Jacob Friis, arrive in third place on seven points from four matches, two places and two points behind Albania. Their last game, on 6 October, ended in a 1-0 defeat away to Belarus, a fixture that followed a 2-1 home win over Albania three days earlier... no, over Albania on 3 October and a goalless draw with Belarus before that.
Albania's five-game form contains two defeats, away to Poland and to Finland, but both of those came on the road. Finland's own summary reads two wins, one draw and two losses from five, with nine goals scored and three conceded.
The most recent meeting was Finland 2–1 Albania on 3 October 2026.
Albania have won three of their last five, while Finland have won two, drawn one and lost two, though Finland's nine goals scored match Albania's nine.
Both sides have faced Belarus and San Marino recently: Albania beat Belarus 2-0 and San Marino twice, while Finland drew 0-0 and lost 1-0 against Belarus and won 7-0 away to San Marino.
Albania meet Finland in the UEFA Nations League (League C - 5). Kick-off is Thursday, 12 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Team pages: Albania · Finland · UEFA Nations League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Albania 56% · Draw 26% · Finland 18%
Albania's higher strength rating gives them a clear lead — Albania sit 84 points higher on our strength rating, 1623 to 1539, and the usual home advantage adds to that, so we give them 56% to Finland's 18%. The draw sits at 26%, close to the usual 25% for a gap this size, nudged up slightly because both sides' recent games average a typical 2.5 goals.
Why Albania at 56%?
Albania sit 84 points higher on our strength rating — 1623 to 1539. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 54–30–16.
Why only 56%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 56% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Finland at 18%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Albania are 1 game into a new manager (R. Maran), appointed 42 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Albania (16 fully-tracked matches with us) and Finland (12) carry strength ratings anchored to the official international ratings list, so the class read stands on far more than our own short records. National sides play too few games for a record built from scratch, so their rating chain starts from the published international ratings instead of a blind first guess.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Albania vs Finland, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this UEFA Nations League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Albania and Finland team pages or the UEFA Nations League page.