Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Ham-KamSarpsborg 08 FFHam-KamSarpsborg 08 FFMatch preview
Ham-Kam host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien matchday 26
Ham-Kam welcome Sarpsborg 08 FF to Briskeby Arena for matchday 26 of the Eliteserien, with the hosts in 13th on 27 points from 25 games. Thomas Myhre's side are four points behind the visitors, who sit ninth on 31 points, also after 25 games.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Ham-Kam have taken one win and one draw from their last five, losing the other three, and scored eight goals while conceding 12. They failed to score in two of those games, the 0-2 defeat by Bodo/Glimt and the 0-3 defeat by Rosenborg, both at home. Their most recent outing was a 2-2 draw away to KFUM Oslo on 1 November.
Even Sel's Sarpsborg come in having lost their most recent game 4-2 at home to Kristiansund BK. Across their last five they have won two and lost three, scoring nine and conceding 13, and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of them. Ham-Kam, by contrast, have not won any of their last five home games, drawing two and losing three.
Across their last 5 meetings, Ham-Kam won 1, Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 Ham-Kam on 26 July 2026. Ham-Kam's latest win in this sample was Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–7 Ham-Kam on 16 May 2024.
Ham-Kam have one win in their last five, while Sarpsborg have two, but Sarpsborg have conceded 13 goals to Ham-Kam's 12 over the same span.
Both sides have faced Rosenborg recently and lost 3-0 on each occasion, Ham-Kam on 24 October and Sarpsborg on 18 October, both at home.
Ham-Kam meet Sarpsborg 08 FF in the Eliteserien (Regular Season - 26). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC at Briskeby Arena.
Team pages: Ham-Kam · Sarpsborg 08 FF · Eliteserien
Sirius · Why these numbers
Ham-Kam 34% · Draw 27% · Sarpsborg 08 FF 39%
Sarpsborg's cold finishing gives them a slight edge — We give Sarpsborg 08 FF 39% mainly because they have scored 0.66 goals per game below their chances, and cold streaks like this have bounced back, while their greater share of the ball adds a little more. The draw sits at 27%, close to the usual rate for sides this level, as high-scoring recent games pull it down and the other factors lift it back.
Why Sarpsborg 08 FF in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1402 to 1433. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Sarpsborg 08 FF sit -0.66 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,696 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold 9 more possession points (53 to 44 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 39%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 27% and Ham-Kam at 34%.
Why the draw at 27%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Ham-Kam have shed 68 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Sarpsborg 08 FF have shed 64 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eliteserien fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF team pages or the Eliteserien page.