Lillestrom vs Aalesund — Eliteserien: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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LillestromAalesundLillestromAalesundMatch preview
Lillestrom host Aalesund in Eliteserien matchday 26 with nine places between them
Lillestrom welcome Aalesund on matchday 26 of the Eliteserien, with Hans Ødegaard's side fifth in the table on 42 points from 25 games. Aalesund, managed by Kjetil-Andre Rekdal, sit 14th on 24 points from the same number of matches, leaving the hosts nine places and 18 points higher.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Lillestrom arrive after a home defeat to Viktoria Plzeň, 1-0 in their latest outing. Before that they won 1-0 away to Start and beat Brann 3-2 at home, while an earlier home game against Real Sociedad ended in a 6-0 loss. Across those five games they have kept two clean sheets and failed to score twice.
Aalesund have lost three of their last five, most recently 4-3 at home to Sandefjord, a result that followed a 2-1 defeat away to Sarpsborg 08 FF. Their two wins in that spell came at Molde and at Kristiansund BK, and they have scored in all five games while conceding 12 goals.
Across their last 5 meetings, Lillestrom won 3, Aalesund won 1, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Aalesund 1–3 Lillestrom on 15 March 2026. Aalesund's latest win in this sample was Aalesund 2–1 Lillestrom on 6 November 2022.
Lillestrom have won three of their last five and kept two clean sheets, while Aalesund have lost three of theirs and conceded 12 goals without once failing to score.
Both sides have faced Sandefjord recently: Lillestrom won 2-0 away, whereas Aalesund lost 4-3 at home to them on 31 October.
Lillestrom meet Aalesund in the Eliteserien (Regular Season - 26). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC at Åråsen Stadion.
Team pages: Lillestrom · Aalesund · Eliteserien
Sirius · Why these numbers
Lillestrom 61% · Draw 23% · Aalesund 16%
Lillestrom's stronger rating gives them a clear lead — We give Lillestrom 61% mainly because they sit 111 points higher on our strength rating, 1442 to 1331, and their habit of controlling the ball adds a little more. The draw starts at 25%, the usual rate for a gap this size, then drops to 23% because both teams' own recent games average 3.7 goals.
Why Lillestrom at 61%?
Lillestrom sit 111 points higher on our strength rating — 1442 to 1331. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. Lillestrom hold 8 more possession points (49 to 41 in recent games) across a 111-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%. The 300 most similar past games finished 54–24–22.
Why only 61%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 61% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 23% and Aalesund at 16%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Aalesund scored +0.70 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Lillestrom won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Aalesund. The record is 4 wins for Lillestrom, 1 draw and 1 win for Aalesund. These were 6 Eliteserien games played at both grounds between 30 October 2017 and 15 March 2026. Latest meeting: 15 March 2026 — Aalesund 1–3 Lillestrom. In 5,573 historical matches between similarly rated teams, home sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 44.0%. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Lillestrom vs Aalesund, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eliteserien fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Lillestrom and Aalesund team pages or the Eliteserien page.