Sandefjord vs Molde — Eliteserien: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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SandefjordMoldeSandefjordMoldeMatch preview
Sandefjord host third-placed Molde on Eliteserien matchday 26
Sandefjord welcome Molde to Sandefjord Arena on matchday 26 of the Eliteserien, with the hosts 12th on 27 points and the visitors third on 43. That is a gap of nine places and 16 points between two sides who have each played 25 league games.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Sandefjord arrive after a 4-3 win at Aalesund on 31 October, a result that followed defeats to Lillestrom and Start. Across their last five they have won two, drawn one and lost two, scoring eight and conceding seven, and they failed to score in two of those games.
Molde were beaten 3-2 at Brann on 1 November, ending a run in which they had put six past Start and five past Fredrikstad. In their last five they have scored 16 goals but conceded nine, and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of them.
Across their last 5 meetings, Sandefjord won 4, Molde won 1, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Molde 2–1 Sandefjord on 30 May 2026. Sandefjord's latest win in this sample was Molde 1–3 Sandefjord on 19 October 2025.
Sandefjord have scored eight goals in their last five games, while Molde have scored 16 and conceded nine over the same stretch.
Sandefjord have failed to score in three of their last five home games, while Molde have scored 14 goals in their last five away.
Sandefjord meet Molde in the Eliteserien (Regular Season - 26). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 16:00 UTC at Jotun Arena.
Team pages: Sandefjord · Molde · Eliteserien
Sirius · Why these numbers
Sandefjord 31% · Draw 26% · Molde 43%
Molde's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Molde sit 105 points higher on our strength rating, 1562 to 1457, and they usually control the ball, holding 62% possession to Sandefjord's 52 in recent games, so we give them 43% despite Sandefjord's usual home advantage. The draw starts near 28% for a gap this size but drops to 26% because both sides' own recent games average 3.7 goals.
Why Molde at 43%?
Molde sit 105 points higher on our strength rating — 1562 to 1457. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Molde hold 10 more possession points (62 to 52 in recent games) across a 105-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%. The 300 most similar past games finished 33–27–40.
Why only 43%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 43% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Sandefjord at 31%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Molde scored +0.42 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Sandefjord won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Molde. The record is 4 wins for Sandefjord, 1 draw and 1 win for Molde. These were 6 Eliteserien games played between 12 August 2023 and 30 May 2026. Latest meeting: 30 May 2026 — Molde 2–1 Sandefjord. Sandefjord lead the 6-match record, although Molde won the latest encounter. In 5,573 historical matches between similarly rated teams, home sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 44.0%.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Sandefjord vs Molde, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eliteserien fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Sandefjord and Molde team pages or the Eliteserien page.