Fredrikstad vs Brann — Eliteserien: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Fredrikstad seek a way out of the slump as Brann visit on Eliteserien matchday 26
Fredrikstad host Brann at Fredrikstad Stadion on matchday 26 of the Eliteserien with the home side sitting 11th on 29 points after 25 games. Casper Rojkjaer's team have lost their last three games and are without a win in seven, a run that includes a 5-1 defeat at Molde and a 3-0 home loss to Rosenborg last time out.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Brann arrive seventh on 32 points, three clear of their hosts and four places higher. Eirik Horneland's side have won two of their last five, drawing 1-1 away to St. Truiden last time out after a 3-2 home win over Molde on 1 November. Across those five games they have scored 11 goals and conceded 10, and have not kept a clean sheet.
Fredrikstad's problem has been at both ends of the pitch: across their last five games they have scored five and conceded 13, failing to score once. Of their last five home games, they have won one, drawn two and lost two.
Across their last 5 meetings, Fredrikstad won 2, Brann won 3, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Brann 3–1 Fredrikstad on 2 May 2026. Fredrikstad's latest win in this sample was Fredrikstad 3–0 Brann on 29 March 2025.
Fredrikstad have won none of their last five, with two draws and three defeats, while Brann have won two, drawn one and lost two in the same span.
Both sides have met Molde recently: Fredrikstad lost 5-1 away to them on 25 October, while Brann beat them 3-2 at home on 1 November.
Fredrikstad meet Brann in the Eliteserien (Regular Season - 26). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 18:15 UTC at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Team pages: Fredrikstad · Brann · Eliteserien
Sirius · Why these numbers
Fredrikstad 31% · Draw 26% · Brann 43%
Brann's higher strength rating gives them the edge — Brann lead mainly because they sit 105 points higher on our strength rating, 1545 to 1440, and their habit of controlling the ball adds to that, with 62% possession in recent games against Fredrikstad's 50%. The draw starts near 28%, the usual rate for a gap this size, and drops to 26% because both sides' own recent games average 3.2 goals.
Why Brann at 43%?
Brann sit 105 points higher on our strength rating — 1545 to 1440. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Brann hold 12 more possession points (62 to 50 in recent games) across a 105-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%. The 300 most similar past games finished 38–26–36.
Why only 43%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 43% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 26% and Fredrikstad at 31%.
Why the draw at 26%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Fredrikstad on 8 days' rest, Brann on 2. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 45,186 measured games no rest advantage repeated.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Fredrikstad vs Brann, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Eliteserien fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Fredrikstad and Brann team pages or the Eliteserien page.