Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa — Ekstraklasa: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Legia WarszawaRaków CzęstochowaLegia WarszawaRaków CzęstochowaMatch preview
Legia Warszawa host Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa matchday 14
Legia Warszawa welcome Raków Częstochowa to Polish Army Stadium on matchday 14 of the Ekstraklasa, with the two sides separated by 14 places in the table. Marek Papszun's team are third on 24 points from 13 games, while Raków, managed by David Szulczek, sit 17th on 9 points from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Legia come into the game on a goalless draw away at Gornik Zabrze last time out, preceded by a 2-1 home defeat to Lech Poznan. Across their last five they have won two, drawn two and lost one, scoring seven and conceding four, with two clean sheets.
Raków's last five brought two wins and three defeats, with nine goals scored and 11 conceded. They beat Pogon Szczecin 3-1 at home last time out, a result that followed a 2-1 loss at Wisla Krakow. Legia, for their part, beat Wisla Krakow 2-0 at home earlier in October. The gap between the sides stands at 15 points.
Across their last 5 meetings, Legia Warszawa won 0, Raków Częstochowa won 2, with 3 draws. The most recent meeting was Legia Warszawa 1–1 Raków Częstochowa on 22 March 2026. Raków Częstochowa's latest win in this sample was Raków Częstochowa 3–2 Legia Warszawa on 16 March 2025.
Legia have won two, drawn two and lost one of their last five, while Raków have won two and lost three, conceding 11 goals without a single clean sheet.
Both sides have faced Wisla Krakow recently: Legia beat them 2-0 at home, while Raków lost 2-1 away.
Legia Warszawa meet Raków Częstochowa in the Ekstraklasa (Regular Season - 14). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 16:30 UTC at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
Team pages: Legia Warszawa · Raków Częstochowa · Ekstraklasa
Sirius · Why these numbers
Legia Warszawa 56% · Draw 23% · Raków Częstochowa 21%
Legia's stronger rating leads, Raków's possession pushes back — We give Legia Warszawa 56% mainly because they sit 86 points higher on our strength rating, 1597 to 1511, though Raków Częstochowa's habit of controlling the ball, 55 to 49 in possession recently, pulls slightly the other way. The draw starts at the usual 25% for a gap this size and drops to 23% because both sides' recent games average 3.3 goals.
Why Legia Warszawa at 56%?
Legia Warszawa sit 86 points higher on our strength rating — 1597 to 1511. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 59–22–19.
Why only 56%?
Raków Częstochowa hold 6 more possession points (55 to 49 in recent games) across a 86-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Legia Warszawa scored +0.43 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Raków Częstochowa have shed 65 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ekstraklasa fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa team pages or the Ekstraklasa page.