Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice — Ekstraklasa: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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JagielloniaGKS KatowiceJagielloniaGKS KatowiceMatch preview
Jagiellonia host higher-placed GKS Katowice in Ekstraklasa matchday 14
Jagiellonia welcome GKS Katowice to Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku in matchday 14 of the Ekstraklasa, with the visitors three places and three points better off in the table. Katowice sit sixth on 21 points from 13 matches; the hosts are ninth on 18 points from 12.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Jagiellonia, managed by Adrian Siemieniec, arrive after a 1-0 defeat at Levski Sofia on 5 November. Before that came a 3-1 win away to Wieczysta Kraków on 31 October and a 1-0 home win over Wisla Plock, though they also lost 3-0 at home to Anderlecht. Across their last five they have won two and lost three, scoring four and conceding six.
Rafal Gorak's Katowice come in on a 3-2 home win over Widzew Łódź on 31 October, their third victory in five games. They lost 1-0 at Korona Kielce and 1-0 at home to Pogon Szczecin before that, and in the five, they scored nine and conceded six.
Across their last 4 meetings, Jagiellonia won 2, GKS Katowice won 1, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was GKS Katowice 2–2 Jagiellonia on 17 May 2026. Jagiellonia's latest win in this sample was Jagiellonia 2–1 GKS Katowice on 17 March 2026. GKS Katowice's latest win in this sample was GKS Katowice 3–1 Jagiellonia on 25 August 2024.
Katowice have won three of their last five and scored nine goals, while Jagiellonia have won two of five and scored four.
Both sides have faced Wieczysta Kraków this season: Jagiellonia won 3-1 there, while Katowice beat them 2-1 at home.
Jagiellonia meet GKS Katowice in the Ekstraklasa (Regular Season - 14). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 13:45 UTC at Chorten Arena.
Team pages: Jagiellonia · GKS Katowice · Ekstraklasa
Sirius · Why these numbers
Jagiellonia 44% · Draw 25% · GKS Katowice 31%
Home advantage gives Jagiellonia a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1535 to 1550, the usual home advantage is what puts Jagiellonia in front, even though that small rating edge helps GKS Katowice. The draw starts at 27% between sides this level, and lively recent games averaging 3.2 goals bring it down to 25%.
Why Jagiellonia in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1535 to 1550. Sides this close won 42.5% of 15,673 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%).
Why only 44%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 25% and GKS Katowice at 31%.
Why the draw at 25%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.1% of 18,743. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Jagiellonia sit -0.40 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0. Jagiellonia have shed 86 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ekstraklasa fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Jagiellonia and GKS Katowice team pages or the Ekstraklasa page.