Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin — Ekstraklasa: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
Players to Watch
Widzew ŁódźPogon SzczecinWidzew ŁódźPogon SzczecinMatch preview
Widzew Łódź seek first win in 11 against fourth-placed Pogon Szczecin
Widzew Łódź host Pogon Szczecin on Ekstraklasa Matchday 14 with the home side sitting 14th on 11 points from 13 games. Mateusz Stolarski's team have gone 10 games without a win, and they arrive off a 3-2 defeat at GKS Katowice on 31 October.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Pogon Szczecin, managed by Óscar García, are fourth on 24 points from 12 matches, 13 points and ten places clear of their hosts. Their last five league games brought four wins and one defeat, the loss coming 3-1 away to Raków Częstochowa on 2 November.
Widzew's recent run has been marked by stalemates: three draws and two defeats in their last five, with no wins at all. Pogon scored ten goals in their last five games, while Widzew managed six and failed to score once.
Across their last 5 meetings, Widzew Łódź won 0, Pogon Szczecin won 5, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Widzew Łódź on 28 February 2026.
Pogon Szczecin won four of their last five and scored ten goals, while Widzew Łódź drew three and lost two of theirs without a victory.
Both sides have faced GKS Katowice and Piast Gliwice recently: Pogon won at both, while Widzew lost 3-2 at Katowice and 2-1 at Piast.
Widzew Łódź meet Pogon Szczecin in the Ekstraklasa (Regular Season - 14). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 19:15 UTC at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
Team pages: Widzew Łódź · Pogon Szczecin · Ekstraklasa
Sirius · Why these numbers
Widzew Łódź 35% · Draw 27% · Pogon Szczecin 38%
Pogon's stronger rating gives them a slight edge — Pogon Szczecin sit 95 points higher on our strength rating, 1561 to 1466, which puts them slightly in front at 38%, though Widzew Łódź usually having more of the ball pulls some way back towards the hosts. The draw sits at 27%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, nudged down slightly because both sides' recent games average 3.0 goals.
Why Pogon Szczecin at 38%?
Pogon Szczecin sit 95 points higher on our strength rating — 1561 to 1466. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 38–29–33.
Why only 38%?
Widzew Łódź hold 7 more possession points (50 to 43 in recent games) across a 95-point rating gap. Control now carries a receipt beyond near-equals too: sides with this control edge at a 60–120-point rating gap won 42.7% of 9,367 such games where the class table expected 40.5%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Pogon Szczecin scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,264 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 40.9% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Pogon Szczecin won all 5 of their last meetings with Widzew Łódź: 2 at home and 3 away. These were 5 Ekstraklasa games played between 16 December 2023 and 28 February 2026. Latest meeting: 28 February 2026 — Pogon Szczecin 1–0 Widzew Łódź. Across 10,176 historical matches involving teams that had won at least four of the previous five meetings, those teams won 55.8%, compared with 54.3% expected from team strength. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ekstraklasa fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin team pages or the Ekstraklasa page.