Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków — Ekstraklasa: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Gornik ZabrzeWieczysta KrakówGornik ZabrzeWieczysta KrakówMatch preview
Gornik Zabrze host struggling Wieczysta Kraków on Ekstraklasa matchday 14
Gornik Zabrze welcome Wieczysta Kraków to Arena Zabrze on matchday 14 of the Ekstraklasa with the sides separated by 16 places and 20 points. Michal Gašparík's team are second with 28 points from 13 games, while Željko Kopić's visitors are 18th on 8 points from the same number.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Gornik arrive unbeaten in nine games, though their last five contain just one win, a 3-1 victory at Jagiellonia on 10 October, alongside four draws. They have kept two clean sheets in that spell and most recently drew 0-0 at home to Legia Warszawa.
Wieczysta have lost their last four games, the latest a 3-1 home defeat to Jagiellonia on 31 October. Across their last five they have scored six and conceded nine, and their only win in that run was a 3-0 home result against Wisla Plock on 9 October.
Gornik have lost none of their last five, with one win and four draws, while Wieczysta have won one and lost four.
Both sides have played Jagiellonia recently: Gornik won 3-1 away on 10 October, and Wieczysta lost 3-1 at home to them on 31 October.
Gornik Zabrze meet Wieczysta Kraków in the Ekstraklasa (Regular Season - 14). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 16:30 UTC at Arena Zabrze im. Ernesta Pohla.
Team pages: Gornik Zabrze · Wieczysta Kraków · Ekstraklasa
Sirius · Why these numbers
Gornik Zabrze 68% · Draw 18% · Wieczysta Kraków 14%
Gornik Zabrze's strength edge drives a clear lead — We give Gornik Zabrze 68% mainly because they sit 189 points higher on our strength rating, 1601 to 1412, with their recent cold finishing, which tends to bounce back, adding a little more. The draw sits at 18%, just under its usual 20% for a gap this size, as both sides' finishing streaks nudge it down.
Why Gornik Zabrze at 68%?
Gornik Zabrze sit 189 points higher on our strength rating — 1601 to 1412. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 67.0% of 7,097 such games. Gornik Zabrze sit -0.52 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 66–21–13.
Why only 68%?
Wieczysta Kraków sit -0.67 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why is the draw only 18%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 19.7%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Wieczysta Kraków have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Gornik Zabrze in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Wieczysta Kraków have shed 63 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 10,436 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ekstraklasa fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków team pages or the Ekstraklasa page.