Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby — FA Cup: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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Stafford Rangers
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Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby — the facts
Stafford Rangers meet Grimsby in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 12:00 UTC at Marston Road.
Team pages: Stafford Rangers · Grimsby · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Stafford Rangers 46% · Draw 27% · Grimsby 27%
Home advantage gives Stafford Rangers a slight lean — Our strength rating has almost nothing between the sides, 1364 to 1345, so the usual home advantage is the main reason we give Stafford Rangers 46% to Grimsby's 27%. The draw sits at 27%, close to the usual rate of 27.5% for sides this level, nudged down slightly because both teams' recent games average 3.0 goals.
Why Stafford Rangers in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1364 to 1345. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 46%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Level sides split the rest: the draw at 27% and Grimsby at 27%.
Why is the draw second, level with the Grimsby win?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Stafford Rangers arrive with 11 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Grimsby bring a 25-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Stafford Rangers vs Grimsby, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Stafford Rangers and Grimsby team pages or the FA Cup page.