Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday — FA Cup: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Oldham host Sheffield Wednesday in FA Cup Round of 256 tie at Boundary Park
Oldham welcome Sheffield Wednesday to Boundary Park in the Round of 256 of the FA Cup, with Micky Mellon in charge of the home side and Henrik Pedersen leading the visitors.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Oldham arrive on the back of defeats to Stoke City, 2-0 away, and to Milton Keynes Dons, 3-1 away in December. Across those two games they have scored once and conceded five, and they failed to score against Stoke.
Sheffield Wednesday have lost three of their last five games, winning the other two, and have scored four goals while conceding eight. Their latest outing was a 2-0 home defeat to Wolves on 25 August. Away from home they have won none of their last five, with one draw and four defeats.
Oldham have lost both of the games in their form, while Sheffield Wednesday have two wins and three defeats from their last five.
Sheffield Wednesday have failed to score in three of their last five away games, scoring twice in total over that stretch.
Oldham meet Sheffield Wednesday in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 17:15 UTC at Boundary Park.
Team pages: Oldham · Sheffield Wednesday · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Oldham 57% · Draw 24% · Sheffield Wednesday 19%
Oldham's higher strength rating gives them the edge — We give Oldham 57% mainly because they sit 80 points higher on our strength rating, 1273 to 1193, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw sits at 24%, just below the usual 25% for a gap this size, as both sides' own recent games average 2.9 goals.
Why Oldham at 57%?
Oldham sit 80 points higher on our strength rating — 1273 to 1193. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.6% of 14,391 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 48–27–25.
Why only 57%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 57% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Sheffield Wednesday at 19%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Oldham arrive with 20 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Sheffield Wednesday bring a 592-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Oldham vs Sheffield Wednesday, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Oldham and Sheffield Wednesday team pages or the FA Cup page.