Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Fleetwood TownRochdaleFleetwood TownRochdaleMatch preview
Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — the facts
Fleetwood Town meet Rochdale in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Highbury Stadium.
Team pages: Fleetwood Town · Rochdale · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Fleetwood Town 42% · Draw 28% · Rochdale 30%
Home advantage gives Fleetwood a slight lean — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, the usual home advantage puts Fleetwood Town in front at 42%, though Rochdale's greater share of the ball pulls the other way. The draw sits at 28%, close to the usual rate for sides this level, nudged up slightly by that control of possession.
Why Fleetwood Town in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1357 to 1325. Sides this close won 46.0% of 14,593 home games (draw 27.5%, visitors 26.6%).
Why only 42%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Rochdale hold 5 more possession points (46 to 41 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 28%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.5%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Rochdale arrive with 23 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Fleetwood Town bring a 27-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Fleetwood Town and Rochdale team pages or the FA Cup page.