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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Oxford UnitedStevenageOxford UnitedStevenageMatch preview
Oxford United host Stevenage in the FA Cup Round of 256 at the Kassam Stadium
Oxford United welcome Stevenage to the Kassam Stadium for an FA Cup Round of 256 tie. The hosts arrive having lost four of their last five games, with a 4-1 home win over Sheffield Wednesday the one victory in that run. Defeats at Derby, Millwall and Leyton Orient came by a single goal, two goals and two goals respectively, and Wrexham also won at the Kassam Stadium.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Stevenage come into the tie off a 3-0 home defeat to Reading, their most recent outing. Before that they won 2-1 away at Wycombe, and earlier in the year they drew 2-2 at home with Lincoln. Across those three games they scored four and conceded six, failing to score once.
Oxford's home record is steadier than their overall form: of their last five home games they have won two, drawn two and lost one, scoring eight and conceding four. Their league-wide run of four defeats from five has failed to produce a goal in four of those games.
Oxford United have lost four of their last five games, while Stevenage have one win, one draw and one defeat in the three games they have played, the win coming at Wycombe.
Oxford's last five home games have brought two wins, two draws and one defeat, a sharper return than their overall form.
Oxford United meet Stevenage in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Kassam Stadium.
Team pages: Oxford United · Stevenage · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Oxford United 45% · Draw 29% · Stevenage 26%
Home advantage edges Oxford United, Stevenage push back — Oxford United lead on home advantage and a 57-point edge on our strength rating, though Stevenage's greater share of the ball pulls the other way. The draw sits at 29%, up from the usual 27% for a gap this size, raised by that ball control and both sides' typical 2.5-goal recent games.
Why Oxford United at 45%?
Oxford United sit 57 points higher on our strength rating — 1330 to 1273. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,130 such games.
Why only 45%?
Stevenage hold 6 more possession points (46 to 40 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,966 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Stevenage win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.5 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Oxford United sit -0.42 goals per game under chance-quality. For home sides we could not receipt a bounce-back — the measured cells sit inside each other's noise bands — so this is noted and scores 0.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Oxford United vs Stevenage, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Oxford United and Stevenage team pages or the FA Cup page.