Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Peterborough vs Reading — the facts
Peterborough meet Reading in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 20:00 UTC at ABAX Stadium.
Team pages: Peterborough · Reading · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Peterborough 39% · Draw 28% · Reading 33%
Home advantage edges Peterborough past stronger Reading — Peterborough lead narrowly at 39% to 33% because the usual home advantage outweighs Reading sitting 52 points higher on our strength rating, 1364 to 1311. The draw sits at 28%, just under the usual 29% for a gap this size, nudged down slightly because both sides' own recent games average 3.0 goals.
Why Peterborough at 39%?
Home ground, against the rating. Reading sit 52 points higher on our strength rating — 1364 to 1311. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge on the road won 32.6% of 11,153 such games.
Why only 39%?
Because Reading are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 28% and Reading at 33%.
Why the draw at 28%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 29.0%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Peterborough are 1 game into a new manager (Robert William Savage), appointed 11 days ago. The famous new-manager bounce doesn't survive its receipt: sides with a new manager beat their rating by 0.9 points over 33,420 games — but sides on an equally bad run who kept their manager beat it by 2.4 over 31,777. Reading won 2 of the last 4 meetings with Peterborough. The record is 2 wins for Reading, 1 draw and 1 win for Peterborough. These were 4 Championship games played between 29 November 2011 and 16 February 2022. Latest meeting: 16 February 2022 — Peterborough 0–0 Reading. In 6,111 historical matches between similarly rated teams, visiting sides with the stronger head-to-head record won 28.2%.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Peterborough vs Reading, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Peterborough and Reading team pages or the FA Cup page.