Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds — FA Cup: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
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Burton Albion
AFC Rushden & DiamondsMatch preview
Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds — the facts
Burton Albion meet AFC Rushden & Diamonds in the FA Cup (1/128-finals). Kick-off is Saturday, 7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC at Pirelli Stadium.
Team pages: Burton Albion · AFC Rushden & Diamonds · FA Cup
Sirius · Why these numbers
Burton Albion 49% · Draw 28% · AFC Rushden & Diamonds 23%
Burton Albion's rating edge gives a slight lean — We give Burton Albion 49% mainly because our strength rating has them a shade stronger, 1389 to 1329, with the usual home advantage adding to that. The draw sits at 28%, starting from about 27% for a gap this size and nudged up by 1.2 points because both sides' recent games average a typical 2.4 goals.
Why Burton Albion at 49%?
Burton Albion sit 60 points higher on our strength rating — 1389 to 1329. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,130 such games.
Why only 49%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 49% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and AFC Rushden & Diamonds at 23%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the AFC Rushden & Diamonds win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
AFC Rushden & Diamonds arrive with 9 fully-tracked matches, so their strength number is a first estimate that will move quickly; Burton Albion bring a 129-game record. New-to-the-record sides are where our rating knows least.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this FA Cup fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds team pages or the FA Cup page.