Palmeiras vs 11.10.26 20:304 – 1Full Time
Corinthians — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Palmeiras sweep aside Corinthians 4-1 to stay second in Brasileirão
Palmeiras beat Corinthians 4-1 at Nubank Parque on Matchday 30 of the Brasileirão Série A, a result that lifted them to 63 points and kept them second in the table. Corinthians, who went into the game 16th on 32 points, stayed there after a heavy defeat.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Alexander Barboza opened the scoring in the 16th minute, converting a Lucas Evangelista assist, and Palmeiras doubled their lead in first-half stoppage time when Agustín Giay finished from a Jhon Arias pass in the 45+1 minute. The visitors barely had time to regroup before the second half began, and the contest was effectively settled within six minutes of the restart.
Matheus Bidu turned the ball into his own net in the 46th minute to make it 3-0, and Giay struck again in the 51st to complete the rout at 4-0. Gustavo Henrique pulled one back for Corinthians in the 90+1 minute from a Vitinho assist, but it was scant consolation. Palmeiras are now unbeaten in 9 games, while Corinthians have now lost 8 games in a row.
Palmeiras travel to Atletico Paranaense in the Brasileirão Série A on Saturday 17 October, while Corinthians host Vitoria in the same competition on Monday 19 October.
Agustín Giay scored twice, in the 45+1 and 51st minutes, and was rated 8.78, the highest of any player on the pitch.
Palmeiras had 22 shots to 12 for Corinthians, with eight of them on target against three.
Palmeiras beat Corinthians 4–1 (half-time 2–0).
Palmeiras met Corinthians in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off was Sunday, 11 October 2026, 20:30 UTC at Nubank Parque. Referee: Anderson Daronco.
Team pages: Palmeiras · Corinthians · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 16' Goal: Alexander Barboza (assist: Lucas Evangelista) — 1–0
- 45+1' Goal: Agustín Giay (assist: Jhon Arias) — 2–0 · Watch Agustín Giay's goal video (45+1')
- 46' Goal (own goal): Matheus Bidu — 3–0 · Watch Matheus Bidu's goal video (46')
- 51' Goal: Agustín Giay — 4–0
- 90+1' Goal: Gustavo Henrique (assist: Vitinho) — 4–1
Starting line-ups
Palmeiras (3-4-2-1)
Corinthians (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Palmeiras 74%, the draw 21%, Corinthians 5%. It finished Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians.
Palmeiras' rating gap decides it — Palmeiras are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and Brasileirão Série A home advantage on top makes it one-sided for Palmeiras. The draw at 21% is lifted by a low-scoring environment.
Why Palmeiras at 74%?
Palmeiras sit 207 points higher on our strength rating — 1703 to 1496. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge at home won 66.8% of 6,567 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,470 games vs 44.6% across all 101,096 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 75–16–9.
Why not higher?
No scored evidence points the other way. 74% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 21% and Corinthians at 5%.
Why is the draw only 21%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 17.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.2 goals — a low-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 28.2% of 18,733. The goals environment adds 2.1 points to the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Corinthians have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than Palmeiras in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Corinthians have shed 85 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.1% of 9,587 such games vs 33.4% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Palmeiras vs Corinthians final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Palmeiras 4–1 Corinthians. Explore more on the Palmeiras and Corinthians team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.