Highlightsge tvYouTubeMatch Events
play_arrow3 clips- 31′Santos, yellow card:Argument
- 39′Bahia, goal:0–1
- 44′Bahia, yellow card:Foul
- Half-time0 – 1
- 46′Santos, substitution:off
- 46′Santos, substitution:off
- 50′Bahia, yellow card:
- 57′Bahia, substitution:off
- 57′Bahia, substitution:off
- 67′Bahia, substitution:off
- 70′Santos, substitution:off
- 70′Santos, substitution:off
- 78′Santos, red card:
- 78′Santos, VAR review:Card upgrade
- 79′Bahia, substitution:off
- 79′Bahia, substitution:off
- 87′Santos, substitution:off
- 89′Santos, yellow card:
- 90+3′Santos, goal:1–1assist
- Full-time1 – 1
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Match report
Ten-man Santos snatch late draw with Bahia
Santos drew 1-1 with Bahia in Brasileirão Série A on Matchday 32 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, salvaging a point after Neymar was sent off at the start of the second half. Luan Peres scored deep into stoppage time to cancel out the lead Bahia had held since the first half.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Luciano Juba put Bahia in front in the 39th minute, and the visitors took that 1-0 advantage into the interval. Santos then lost Neymar to a red card in the 46th minute, leaving them a man down for the whole of the second half with the score still 0-1.
Even with ten men, Santos dominated the numbers. They finished with 23 shots to 16, 11 on target to 2, and 14 corners to 8, while holding 56 per cent of possession. The pressure told in the 90+3 minute, when Peres converted from a Benjamín Rollheiser assist to make it 1-1. From the red card onwards, Santos scored once and conceded none.
The point left Bahia seventh on 50 points, four clear of eighth-placed Santos on 46. Santos play Palmeiras at home on Wednesday in the Brasileirão Série A, while Bahia host Sao Paulo in the same competition.
Luan Peres scored the 90+3 equaliser and finished with a rating of 7.67. Álvaro Barreal posted a rating of 8.14 for Santos.
Santos had 11 shots on target to Bahia's 2, despite playing the entire second half with ten men.
Santos and Bahia drew 1–1 (half-time 0–1).
Santos met Bahia in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 32). Kick-off was Sunday, 25 October 2026, 00:00 UTC at Estadio Urbano Caldeira. Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio. Attendance: 14,656.
Team pages: Santos · Bahia · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 39' Goal: Luciano Juba — 0–1 · Watch Luciano Juba's goal video (39')
- 78' Red card: Neymar
- 90+3' Goal: Luan Peres (assist: Benjamín Rollheiser) — 1–1 · Watch Luan Peres's goal video (90+3')
Starting line-ups
Santos (4-2-3-1)
Bahia (4-3-3)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Santos 48%, the draw 29%, Bahia 23%. It finished Santos 1–1 Bahia.
Santos edge it, with Bahia's cold finishing pulling back — Santos lead at 48% thanks to a slightly higher strength rating, 1572 to 1531, plus the usual home advantage, though Bahia's finishing, below what their chances deserved, pulls against them because cold streaks like this tend to bounce back. The draw sits at 29%, up from a 27% starting point, mainly because draws are common in Brasileirão Série A.
Why Santos at 48%?
Santos sit 41 points higher on our strength rating — 1572 to 1531. Sides with a 40–80-point rating edge at home won 50.1% of 11,069 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,489 games vs 44.6% across all 107,859 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 48%?
Bahia sit -0.47 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,642 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally. Santos scored +0.42 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.7% of 1,643 games, vs 27.8% against normal finishing.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Bahia win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 26.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.8 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.8% of 27,159. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The bounce-back factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Santos have gained 67 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.0% of 11,927 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Gonzalo Escobar, a star player. Doubtful: Lucas Veríssimo, an important player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Santos vs Bahia final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Santos 1–1 Bahia. Explore more on the Santos and Bahia team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.