Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
HighlightsUOL EsporteYouTubeMatch Events
- 14′Atletico Paranaense, yellow card:
- 23′Atletico Paranaense, own goal:0–1Own goal
- 25′Atletico Paranaense, VAR review:Goal confirmed
- 29′Vitoria, goal:1–1assist
- 41′Vitoria, yellow card:
- 42′Atletico Paranaense, yellow card:
- 45+4′Atletico Paranaense, yellow card:
- Half-time1 – 1
- 46′Vitoria, substitution:off
- 68′Vitoria, substitution:off
- 71′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 80′Vitoria, substitution:off
- 80′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:Kauan Augusto Stabelinioff
- 80′Vitoria, substitution:off
- 81′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 81′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 87′Vitoria, substitution:off
- 90+1′Atletico Paranaense, yellow card:
- 90+5′Vitoria, red card:
- 90+6′Atletico Paranaense, substitution:off
- 90+6′Vitoria, yellow card:
- Full-time1 – 1
Lineups
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Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense
Match report
Vitoria hold Atletico Paranaense to 1-1 draw despite late red card
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense drew 1-1 at Estadio Manoel Barradas in Brasileirão Série A on Matchday 32. The visitors, fourth in the table, came away with a point that took them to 54 points, while the hosts moved to 38 and stayed 13th.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Atletico Paranaense went in front in the 23rd minute through an own goal by Jamerson, which made it 1-0 to the visitors. Vitoria needed only six minutes to respond, as Renato Kayzer scored in the 29th minute from an Emanuel Brítez assist to make it 1-1. The score stayed that way at half-time and until the end.
Vitoria had the bulk of the ball, with 61% possession to 39%, and finished with 11 shots to 10, four of them on target to none. Atletico Paranaense committed 19 fouls to 11 and picked up four yellow cards to two. Marinho was sent off for Vitoria in the 90+5 minute, leaving the hosts with ten men for the closing stages.
Vitoria next travel to Coritiba in Brasileirão Série A on Thursday, while Atletico Paranaense are away to Gremio in the same competition.
Emanuel Brítez created the equaliser with his assist for Renato Kayzer and was the top-rated performer in the data, scoring 7.3.
Vitoria put four shots on target while Atletico Paranaense managed none.
Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense drew 1–1 (half-time 1–1).
Vitoria met Atletico Paranaense in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 32). Kick-off was Saturday, 24 October 2026, 19:30 UTC at Barradao. Referee: Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento. Attendance: 16,674.
Team pages: Vitoria · Atletico Paranaense · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 23' Goal (own goal): Jamerson — 0–1
- 29' Goal: Renato Kayzer (assist: Emanuel Brítez) — 1–1
- 90+5' Red card: Marinho
Starting line-ups
Vitoria (4-2-3-1)
Atletico Paranaense (3-4-2-1)
- 1 Mycael
- 37 Lucas Esquivel
- 33 Juan Aguirre
- 55 Bruno Baldini
- 7 Stiven Mendoza
- 14 Luiz Gustavo
- 16 Jádson
- 12 Gilberto
- 8 João Cruz
- 21 Leozinho
- 9 Kevin Viveros
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Vitoria 37%, the draw 27%, Atletico Paranaense 36%. It finished Vitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense.
Strong home advantage edges Vitoria past stronger visitors — Our strength rating has Atletico Paranaense 94 points higher, but Vitoria's usual home advantage, boosted because home sides in the Brasileirão Série A out-perform the global norm, gives them a slight lean at 37% to 36%. The draw sits at 27%, pulled down from its 28% starting point by high-scoring recent games averaging 3.2 goals, though the competition's usual draw rate lifts it back up a little.
Why Vitoria at 37%?
Home ground, against the rating. Atletico Paranaense sit 94 points higher on our strength rating — 1557 to 1463. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,788 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (26.9% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.9% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,489 games vs 44.6% across all 107,859 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why only 37%?
Because Atletico Paranaense are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 27% and Atletico Paranaense at 36%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.7%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,375. The goals environment takes 2.5 points off the draw. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points.
What did we measure but not count?
Atletico Paranaense scored +0.52 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 3,154 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.1% vs 42.2% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. With 7 rounds left, both still have something to play for — Vitoria are 6 points above the drop, Atletico Paranaense 2 points clear of 5th. Two-motivated run-ins have leaned slightly to stalemates in our corpus, but the measured cell (4115 games so far) hasn't cleared our evidence bar — noted at 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Vitoria 1–1 Atletico Paranaense. Explore more on the Vitoria and Atletico Paranaense team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.