Flamengo vs Atletico-MG — Brasileirão Série A: stats, lineups & analysis
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- 7′Atletico-MG, goal:0–1assist
- 34′Flamengo, goal:1–1assist
- 41′Flamengo, goal:2–1assist
- Half-time2 – 1
- 46′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 59′Atletico-MG, goal:2–2assist
- 63′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 63′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 63′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 69′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 69′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 75′Flamengo, yellow card:
- 75′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 75′Flamengo, substitution:off
- 76′Flamengo, yellow card:
- 90+1′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 90+1′Atletico-MG, substitution:off
- 90+8′Atletico-MG, yellow card:
- 90+8′Atletico-MG, yellow card:
- 90+9′Flamengo, penalty goal:3–2Penalty
- Full-time3 – 2
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Key Stats
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Flamengo
Atletico-MG
Match report
Flamengo snatch late penalty to beat Atletico-MG 3-2 at the Maracanã
Flamengo won 3-2 against Atletico-MG in a Brasileirão Série A match on Matchday 32 at the Estádio do Maracanã, Jorge Carrascal converting a penalty in the 90+9 minute to settle a five-goal contest. The result lifted the home side from second to first, on 70 points, while Atletico-MG stayed sixth on 50.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Atletico-MG had led after seven minutes, Bernard finishing from Angelo Preciado's assist. Flamengo levelled in the 34th minute through Gonzalo Plata, set up by Guillermo Varela, and went ahead seven minutes later when Giorgian de Arrascaeta scored from Samuel Lino's pass to make it 2-1 at the interval.
Renan Lodi pulled the visitors level at 2-2 in the 59th minute, Victor Hugo supplying the assist, and the game appeared to be heading for a draw until stoppage time. Flamengo had dominated possession with 72 per cent and had 29 shots to 5, and that pressure finally told when Carrascal stepped up from the spot. Flamengo are now unbeaten in nine games, while Atletico-MG's run of six unbeaten came to an end. Both sides play on Thursday: Flamengo travel to Vasco DA Gama and Atletico-MG host Cruzeiro, each in the Brasileirão Série A.
Giorgian de Arrascaeta scored Flamengo's second goal just before half-time and was the top-rated performer with 8.58. Samuel Lino and Guillermo Varela each provided an assist.
Flamengo had 29 shots to Atletico-MG's five, underlining how one-sided the contest was in territory despite the visitors twice taking the lead or levelling.
Flamengo beat Atletico-MG 3–2 (half-time 2–1).
Flamengo met Atletico-MG in the Brasileirão Série A (Regular Season - 32). Kick-off was Monday, 26 October 2026, 23:00 UTC at Estádio do Maracanã. Referee: Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima. Attendance: 60,624.
Team pages: Flamengo · Atletico-MG · Brasileirão Série A
Key moments
- 7' Goal: Bernard (assist: Angelo Preciado) — 0–1
- 34' Goal: Gonzalo Plata (assist: Guillermo Varela) — 1–1
- 41' Goal: Giorgian de Arrascaeta (assist: Samuel Lino) — 2–1
- 59' Goal: Renan Lodi (assist: Victor Hugo) — 2–2
- 90+9' Goal (penalty): Jorge Carrascal — 3–2
Starting line-ups
Flamengo (4-2-3-1)
Atletico-MG (4-4-2)
- 1 Gabriel Delfim
- 6 Renan Lodi
- 13 Lyanco
- 40 Vitão
- 2 Natanael
- 11 Bernard
- 21 Alan Franco
- 8 Maycon
- 23 Angelo Preciado
- 17 Igor Gomes
- 30 Victor Hugo
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Flamengo 59%, the draw 28%, Atletico-MG 13%. It finished Flamengo 3–2 Atletico-MG.
Flamengo's stronger rating drives a clear lead — We give Flamengo 59% mainly because our strength rating has them 149 points higher, 1735 to 1586, and home sides in the Brasileirão Série A tend to do better than the global norm. The draw sits at 28%, up from a usual 25% for a gap this size, nudged higher by this competition's draw rate and both teams' typical recent scoring.
Why Flamengo at 59%?
Flamengo sit 149 points higher on our strength rating — 1735 to 1586. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge at home won 56.5% of 14,347 such games. Brasileirão Série A home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to draws (27.0% vs 25.4% norm) and away wins (24.8% vs 30.0%). Brasileirão Série A homes won 48.2% of 4,496 games vs 44.6% across all 108,006 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. The 300 most similar past games finished 64–24–12.
Why only 59%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 59% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 28% and Atletico-MG at 13%.
Why is the draw second, ahead of the Atletico-MG win?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,326. Brasileirão Série A runs draw-heavy, adding 1.6 points. The goals environment adds 1.1 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Flamengo have averaged 7 percentage points more possession than Atletico-MG in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. With 7 rounds left, both still have something to play for — Flamengo are 2 points off top spot, Atletico-MG 4 points off the top four. Two-motivated run-ins have leaned slightly to stalemates in our corpus, but the measured cell (4117 games so far) hasn't cleared our evidence bar — noted at 0 points. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Flamengo vs Atletico-MG final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Brasileirão Série A fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Flamengo 3–2 Atletico-MG. Explore more on the Flamengo and Atletico-MG team pages or the Brasileirão Série A page.