New York Red Bulls vs Sat 26 Sept23:30 Scheduled
St. Louis City — Major League Soccer: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Match preview
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City — the facts
New York Red Bulls meet St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 27). Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Team pages: New York Red Bulls · St. Louis City · Major League Soccer
Sirius · Why these numbers
New York Red Bulls 40% · Draw 27% · St. Louis City 33%
Home ground outweighs St. Louis City's rating edge — St. Louis City are the stronger side on our strength rating, but Major League Soccer home advantage plus New York Red Bulls' cold finishing due to recover give New York Red Bulls the lean. The draw at 27% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why New York Red Bulls at 40%?
Home ground, against the rating. St. Louis City sit 160 points higher on our strength rating — 1500 to 1660. Sides with a 100–200-point rating edge on the road won 40.1% of 13,218 such games. Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.8% vs 30.2%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,189 games vs 44.9% across all 100,559 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly. New York Red Bulls sit -0.54 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.9% of 2,471 such games where the class table expected 36.4%.
Why only 40%?
Because St. Louis City are the stronger side on our strength rating. The rest is the draw at 27% and St. Louis City at 33%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.0 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.6% of 25,179.
What did we measure but not count?
St. Louis City scored +0.41 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,895 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. St. Louis City have gained 94 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 41.4% of 12,433 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Major League Soccer fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City team pages or the Major League Soccer page.
Quick answers
›What time does New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City kick off?
Kick-off is Saturday, 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC at Sports Illustrated Stadium, a Major League Soccer fixture (matchday 27).
›Where can I watch New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City goal clips and highlights?
Goal clips and match highlights will be published on this page — each goal video is added shortly after it goes in, with highlights after full-time.