Minnesota United FC vs 17.10.26 20:303 – 2Full Time
St. Louis City — Major League Soccer: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Minnesota United FC rally from two down to beat St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC came from two goals down to beat St. Louis City 3-2 at Allianz Field on Matchday 30 of Major League Soccer. The visitors, who arrived in fourth place, were two goals clear after ten minutes through Rafael Navarro in the 4th minute and Jeong Sang-Bin in the 10th, with Navarro providing the assist for the second.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Minnesota went in at half-time 2-0 down but pulled one back four minutes after the restart, Aziel Jackson scoring from Kelvin Yeboah's assist in the 49th minute. Yeboah then levelled in the 68th minute, set up by Mauricio Gonzalez, as the hosts, who had dominated the shot count, finally turned pressure into goals.
Marcus Caldeira completed the turnaround in the 86th minute, converting Joaquín Pereyra's assist to make it 3-2. Minnesota ended a run of eight games without a win, while St. Louis City's run of 21 games unbeaten came to an end. Oddsivio's pre-match forecast had given Minnesota United FC a 29% chance of winning. Minnesota next travel to Houston Dynamo in Major League Soccer, while St. Louis City visit Columbus Crew in the US Open Cup.
Rafael Navarro scored the opening goal and set up Jeong Sang-Bin for the second, earning the highest rating of any player on the pitch at 8.37 despite finishing on the losing side.
Minnesota had 27 shots to 15 for St. Louis City, even though the visitors held 55% of the possession.
Minnesota United FC beat St. Louis City 3–2 (half-time 0–2).
Minnesota United FC met St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer (Regular Season - 30). Kick-off was Saturday, 17 October 2026, 20:30 UTC at Allianz Field. Referee: Ramy Touchan. Attendance: 19,616.
Team pages: Minnesota United FC · St. Louis City · Major League Soccer
Key moments
- 4' Goal: Rafael Navarro — 0–1
- 10' Goal: Jeong Sang-Bin (assist: Rafael Navarro) — 0–2
- 49' Goal: Aziel Jackson (assist: Kelvin Yeboah) — 1–2
- 68' Goal: Kelvin Yeboah (assist: Mauricio Gonzalez) — 2–2
- 86' Goal: Marcus Caldeira (assist: Joaquín Pereyra) — 3–2
Starting line-ups
Minnesota United FC (3-4-1-2)
St. Louis City (3-4-1-2)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Minnesota United FC 29%, the draw 23%, St. Louis City 48%. It finished Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis City.
St. Louis City's strength edge, tempered by home advantage — St. Louis City lead mainly because our strength rating puts them 171 points higher, 1608 to 1437, though home advantage runs strong across Major League Soccer and pulls some way back towards Minnesota. We give the draw 23%, a little below the usual 25% for a gap this size, because both teams' own recent games average 4.5 goals.
Why St. Louis City at 48%?
St. Louis City sit 171 points higher on our strength rating — 1608 to 1437. Sides with a 160–240-point rating edge on the road won 50.9% of 6,689 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 29–27–44.
Why only 48%?
Major League Soccer home sides out-perform the global norm — and the difference mostly flows to away wins (25.7% vs 30.0%). Major League Soccer homes won 49.2% of 5,237 games vs 44.6% across all 101,264 — outside the noise band, so the tally moves accordingly.
Why is the draw only 23%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 25.0%. These teams' recent games average 4.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 16,940. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
St. Louis City have averaged 10 percentage points more possession than Minnesota United FC in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Minnesota United FC scored +0.37 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,843 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 41.4% vs 42.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Major League Soccer fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Minnesota United FC 3–2 St. Louis City. Explore more on the Minnesota United FC and St. Louis City team pages or the Major League Soccer page.