Match report
Arsenal vs Leeds — the facts
Arsenal beat Leeds 2–1 (half-time 0–0).
Arsenal met Leeds in the Premier League (Regular Season - 6). Kick-off was Saturday, 10 October 2026, 11:30 UTC at Emirates Stadium. Referee: Paul Tierney. Attendance: 60,315.
Team pages: Arsenal · Leeds · Premier League
Key moments
- 55' Goal: James Justin (assist: Gabriel Gudmundsson) — 0–1 · Watch James Justin's goal video (55')
- 62' Goal: Riccardo Calafiori (assist: Benjamin White) — 1–1 · Watch Riccardo Calafiori's goal video (62')
- 70' Goal: Bruno Guimarães (assist: Declan Rice) — 2–1 · Watch Bruno Guimarães's goal video (70')
Starting line-ups
Arsenal (4-2-3-1)
Leeds (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Arsenal 69%, the draw 19%, Leeds 12%. It finished Arsenal 2–1 Leeds.
Arsenal's rating gap decides it — Arsenal are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and that is most of Arsenal's 69%. The draw at 19% is up from the usual 16.8% for a gap this size, as small adjustments add up.
Why Arsenal at 69%?
Arsenal sit 243 points higher on our strength rating — 2019 to 1776. Sides with a more than 240-point rating edge at home won 79.2% of 5,549 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 69–18–13.
Why only 69%?
Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Arsenal's column. Across 11,252 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.7%, with draws up 1.4 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why is the draw only 19%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 16.8%. These teams' recent games average 2.7 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.5% of 28,284. Early-season fixtures add 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Arsenal have averaged 8 percentage points more possession than Leeds in recent games. That doesn’t change our forecast here. Out: William Saliba, an important player, and Christos Tzolis, on a provisional rating. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Arsenal vs Leeds final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Premier League fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch James Justin's goal against Arsenal (55').
- Watch Riccardo Calafiori's goal against Leeds (62').
- Watch Bruno Guimarães's goal against Leeds (70').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Arsenal 2–1 Leeds. Explore more on the Arsenal and Leeds team pages or the Premier League page.