Crystal Palace vs Sun 25 Oct14:00 Scheduled
Newcastle — Premier League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Lineups
Match preview
Crystal Palace host Newcastle at Selhurst Park in Matchweek 8
Crystal Palace welcome Newcastle to Selhurst Park for Matchweek 8 of the Premier League, with two sides in the lower half of the table. Palace, managed by Pierre Sage, sit 16th on seven points from seven games, while Matthias Jaissle's Newcastle are 14th on eight points.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Palace arrive on the back of a busy run. Their last game was a 2-2 draw away to Beşiktaş on 22 October, and four days before that they lost 5-0 at Brighton. Across their last five games they have won one, drawn two and lost two, conceding 11 goals and scoring seven.
Newcastle have lost their last two games, going down 4-1 at Coventry on 12 October and then 1-0 at home to Aston Villa on 17 October. In their last five they have won two and lost three, scoring five and conceding 10. They sit one point and two places above Palace in the table.
Across their last 5 meetings, Crystal Palace won 2, Newcastle won 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Crystal Palace 2–1 Newcastle on 12 April 2026. Newcastle's latest win in this sample was Newcastle 2–0 Crystal Palace on 4 January 2026.
Palace have drawn two of their last five games and lost two, while Newcastle have lost three of their last five and scored only five goals in them.
Palace have won three of their last five home games, scoring 13 goals, while Newcastle have lost three of their last five away games.
Crystal Palace meet Newcastle in the Premier League (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off is Sunday, 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Selhurst Park. Referee: Paul Tierney.
Team pages: Crystal Palace · Newcastle · Premier League
Starting line-ups
Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1)
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Crystal Palace 40% · Draw 26% · Newcastle 34%
Home advantage edges Crystal Palace in front narrowly — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, 1737 to 1759, the usual home advantage puts Crystal Palace slightly ahead at 40%, though Newcastle's greater share of the ball pulls the other way. The draw sits at 26%, just under the usual 27% for sides this level, as high-scoring recent games outweigh Newcastle's control.
Why Crystal Palace in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1737 to 1759. Sides this close won 42.4% of 15,614 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%).
Why only 40%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Newcastle hold 11 more possession points (54 to 43 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,924 games, from 44.0% when styles were level.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.6 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,416. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The control factor adds 1.4 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Newcastle have shed 64 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.0% of 10,371 such games vs 33.3% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Newcastle have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Premier League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Crystal Palace and Newcastle team pages or the Premier League page.