Manchester United vs Sun 25 Oct14:00 Scheduled
Bournemouth — Premier League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineup
Match preview
Manchester United host Bournemouth at Old Trafford in Matchweek 8
Manchester United welcome Bournemouth to Old Trafford in Matchweek 8 of the Premier League, with Michael Carrick's side 13th in the table on seven points from seven games. Marco Rose's Bournemouth sit two places below them in 15th, one point behind, so the two arrive separated by the narrowest of margins.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
United have gone seven games without a win, and none of their last five matches brought a victory: three draws and two defeats, with four goals scored and nine conceded. The most recent of those was a 4-1 loss away to Como on 21 October, and they failed to score in one of the five.
Bournemouth come in on a run of three straight wins, the latest a 3-0 victory over AC Milan on 22 October, preceded by a 2-0 win against Sunderland and a 3-0 win over Sturm Graz. Across their last five they have scored nine and conceded six, keeping three clean sheets.
Across their last 5 meetings, Manchester United won 0, Bournemouth won 1, with 4 draws. The most recent meeting was Bournemouth 2–2 Manchester United on 20 March 2026. Bournemouth's latest win in this sample was Manchester United 0–3 Bournemouth on 22 December 2024.
United are winless in their last five, with three draws and two defeats, while Bournemouth have won three of theirs and kept three clean sheets.
Bournemouth's last five away games brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with 11 goals conceded, while United's last five at home produced two wins, one draw and two defeats.
Manchester United meet Bournemouth in the Premier League (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off is Sunday, 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Old Trafford. Referee: Jarred Gillett.
Team pages: Manchester United · Bournemouth · Premier League
Predicted line-ups
Manchester United (4-2-3-1)
Bournemouth (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Manchester United 38% · Draw 26% · Bournemouth 36%
Home advantage edges a near-even contest — Our strength rating has almost nothing between the sides, so Manchester United's usual home advantage puts them narrowly ahead at 38%, while a Bournemouth cold streak in front of goal, the kind that tends to bounce back, keeps them close. The draw sits at 26%, just under its usual 27%, because both teams' recent games average 3.3 goals.
Why Manchester United in front?
Home ground, and little else. Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1795 to 1828. Sides this close won 42.4% of 15,614 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%).
Why only 38%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Bournemouth sit -0.37 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Visitors this cold went on to win 32.0% of 1,652 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why the draw at 26%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.3 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,416. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor adds 1.2 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Out: Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo, important players. Doubtful: Lisandro Martínez, an important player, and Marcus Rashford, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. Out: Alex Scott, an important player. Doubtful: Eli Junior Kroupi, a rotation player. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Manchester United vs Bournemouth, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Premier League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Manchester United and Bournemouth team pages or the Premier League page.