Sunderland vs Sun 25 Oct16:30 Scheduled
Leeds — Premier League: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Sunderland host Leeds with a 13-place gap in the Premier League table
Sunderland welcome Leeds to the Stadium of Light in Premier League Matchweek 8 sitting 20th, with four points from seven games. Régis Le Bris's side have had a difficult recent run, losing three of their last five games across all competitions and failing to score in two of them.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Leeds arrive seventh on 10 points from seven matches, six clear of their hosts and 13 places higher. Daniel Farke's team have won one of their last five, drawing two and losing two, and have scored nine goals while conceding 10 across that sequence.
Sunderland's home record is the more encouraging part of their picture: they have won three of their last five home games and kept three clean sheets in them. Leeds have won two of their last five away, scoring eight and conceding nine.
Across their last 5 meetings, Sunderland won 1, Leeds won 1, with 3 draws. The most recent meeting was Leeds 0–1 Sunderland on 3 March 2026. Leeds's latest win in this sample was Leeds 2–1 Sunderland on 17 February 2025.
Team news as of 25 October: Sunderland have Dan Ballard, Romaine Mundle and Kevin Danso (suspended) listed as out, and Thomas Meunier and Wilson Isidor as doubtful. Leeds have Joe Rodon and Mateo Joseph listed as out, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach and Noah Okafor as doubtful.
Sunderland have won one of their last five games, with Leeds also managing one win in theirs, though Leeds have lost two to Sunderland's three.
Sunderland have kept three clean sheets in their last five home games, while Leeds have scored in all five of their last five away games.
Sunderland meet Leeds in the Premier League (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off is Sunday, 25 October 2026, 16:30 UTC at Stadium of Light. Referee: Stuart Attwell.
Team pages: Sunderland · Leeds · Premier League
Sirius · Why these numbers
Sunderland 33% · Draw 27% · Leeds 40%
Leeds' stronger rating gives them a slight edge — We give Leeds 40% mainly because our strength rating has them 101 points higher, 1774 to 1673, though Sunderland's cold finishing streak, with streaks like this tending to bounce back, pulls some way against that. The draw sits at 27%, close to the usual rate for a gap this size, with finishing streaks nudging it down and typical scoring nudging it up.
Why Leeds at 40%?
Leeds sit 101 points higher on our strength rating — 1774 to 1673. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,806 such games. Leeds sit -0.31 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 2,943 such games where the class table expected 35.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 32–29–39.
Why only 40%?
Sunderland sit -0.87 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 2,943 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.6 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,316. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Out: Joe Rodon, a rotation player. Doubtful: Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Anton Stach, important players, and Noah Okafor, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. Sunderland on 2 days' rest, Leeds on 7. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 44,936 measured games no rest advantage repeated. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Sunderland vs Leeds, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Premier League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Sunderland and Leeds team pages or the Premier League page.