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Match preview
Liverpool host in-form Brighton in Premier League Matchweek 8 at Anfield
Liverpool welcome Brighton to Anfield in Matchweek 8 of the Premier League, with Andoni Iraola's side fifth in the table on 12 points from seven games. They arrive on a run of three straight wins, the latest a 4-3 home victory over Villarreal on 20 October.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Brighton, managed by Fabian Hurzeler, sit third on 16 points from seven, four clear of their hosts. They have won their last six games and are unbeaten in seven, with their most recent outing a 5-0 win over Crystal Palace.
Across their last five games Brighton have scored 17 goals and conceded two, keeping four clean sheets. Liverpool have won four of their last five, scoring 13 and conceding 10, with the one defeat a 3-0 home loss to Manchester City on 11 October.
Across their last 5 meetings, Liverpool won 3, Brighton won 2, with 0 draws. The most recent meeting was Brighton 2–1 Liverpool on 21 March 2026. Liverpool's latest win in this sample was Liverpool 3–0 Brighton on 14 February 2026.
Brighton have won all five of their last five, while Liverpool have won four of their last five, losing once at home to Manchester City.
Brighton have kept clean sheets in three of their last five away games, while Liverpool have failed to score in two of their last five at Anfield.
Liverpool meet Brighton in the Premier League (Regular Season - 8). Kick-off is Sunday, 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC at Anfield. Referee: Samuel Barrott.
Team pages: Liverpool · Brighton · Premier League
Starting line-ups
Liverpool (4-2-3-1)
Brighton (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Liverpool 42% · Draw 23% · Brighton 35%
Home advantage edges Liverpool in front, Brighton close behind — With almost nothing between the sides on our strength rating, the usual home advantage is what puts Liverpool slightly ahead at 42% to 35%, though Brighton's habit of controlling the ball pulls against them. The draw starts near 27%, the usual rate for sides this level, but high-scoring recent games and a finishing streak bring it down to 23%.
Why Liverpool in front?
Almost nothing between them on our strength rating — 1873 to 1881. Sides this close won 42.4% of 15,614 home games (draw 27.2%, visitors 30.4%). Brighton scored +0.61 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Visitors running this hot went on to win 27.5% of 1,631 games, vs 27.8% for visitors finishing normally.
Why only 42%?
Because on our strength rating there is nothing in it. Brighton hold 8 more possession points (63 to 55 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, when the visitors held this control edge the home team's win rate fell to 39.7% across 5,924 games, from 44.0% when styles were level. Liverpool scored +0.30 goals per game beyond chance-quality — home sides this hot gave some of it back. Opponents of hot-finishing home sides won 28.7% of 1,654 games, vs 27.8% against normal finishing.
Why is the draw only 23%?
Between sides this level the draw starts at 27.2%. These teams' recent games average 3.7 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 23.2% of 18,416. The goals environment takes 2.3 points off the draw. The cool-off factor takes 2.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Brighton have gained 72 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: climbing sides won 40.0% of 11,940 such games vs 40.6% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Out: Dominik Szoboszlai, a star player. Doubtful: Víctor Muñoz, a rotation player. This does not change our forecast yet: we are still measuring how much missing players like these cost a team. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Liverpool vs Brighton, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Premier League fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Liverpool and Brighton team pages or the Premier League page.