Strasbourg vs 29.08.26 15:152 – 1Full Time
Lens — Ligue 1: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Yassine double sinks Lens as Strasbourg fight back to win 2-1
Strasbourg came from behind to beat Lens 2-1 in a Ligue 1 fixture at Stade de la Meinau, turning around a half-time deficit with two second-half goals from Gessime Yassine. The result lifted Strasbourg to 3 points from two matches, level with Lens despite occupying a lower league position.
AI-assisted match report written from official match data.
Florian Thauvin put Lens ahead from the penalty spot in the 38th minute, sending Strasbourg in behind at the interval. The hosts responded quickly after the restart as Yassine, assisted by Sebastian Nanasi, levelled matters in the 48th minute to make it 1-1.
Yassine struck again in the 85th minute, once more set up by Nanasi, to complete his brace and turn the contest decisively in Strasbourg's favour. Lens could not find a response, and the match finished 2-1, with both sides finishing level on cards and shots on target at 7 apiece.
Yassine scored both of Strasbourg's goals, converting two chances created by Nanasi to finish with a rating of 9.43 and hand his side the win.
Despite Lens registering more corners, six to Strasbourg's three, it was the hosts who possessed the ball slightly more, at 52% to 48%.
Strasbourg beat Lens 2–1 (half-time 0–1).
Strasbourg met Lens in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Saturday, 29 August 2026, 15:15 UTC at Stade de la Meinau. Referee: Bastien Dechepy.
Team pages: Strasbourg · Lens · Ligue 1
Key moments
- 38' Goal (penalty): Florian Thauvin — 0–1 · Watch Florian Thauvin's goal video (38')
- 48' Goal: Gessime Yassine (assist: Sebastian Nanasi) — 1–1 · Watch Gessime Yassine's goal video (48')
- 85' Goal: Gessime Yassine (assist: Sebastian Nanasi) — 2–1 · Watch Gessime Yassine's goal video (85')
Starting line-ups
Strasbourg (4-3-3)
Lens (3-4-2-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Strasbourg 22%, the draw 24%, Lens 54%. It finished Strasbourg 2–1 Lens.
Lens' rating gap outweighs Strasbourg's home ground — Lens are clearly the stronger side on our strength rating, and the early-season home fade on top gives Lens the lean. The draw at 24% is about what a gap this size usually leaves.
Why Lens at 54%?
Lens sit 218 points higher on our strength rating — 1716 to 1934. Sides with a 200–300-point rating edge on the road won 52.0% of 6,049 such games. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Strasbourg's column. Across 10,761 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018. The 300 most similar past games finished 26–22–52.
Why only 54%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 54% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 24% and Strasbourg at 22%.
Why the draw at 24%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 24.1%. These teams' recent games average 3.5 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,023. The goals environment takes 2.1 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Strasbourg scored +0.34 goals per game beyond chance-quality lately — hot streaks like that have cooled off. Measured across 2,799 games at this rating gap, hot-finishing sides won 42.1% vs 42.9% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it scores 0 until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Strasbourg have shed 170 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,671 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Strasbourg vs Lens final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 1 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Florian Thauvin's goal against Strasbourg (38').
- Watch Gessime Yassine's goal against Lens (48').
- Watch Gessime Yassine's goal against Lens (85').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Strasbourg 2–1 Lens. Explore more on the Strasbourg and Lens team pages or the Ligue 1 page.