Stade Brestois 29 vs 29.08.26 18:452 – 2Full Time
Toulouse — Ligue 1: stats, lineups & analysis
Match report
Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse — the facts
Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse drew 2–2 (half-time 1–1).
Stade Brestois 29 met Toulouse in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 2). Kick-off was Saturday, 29 August 2026, 18:45 UTC at Stade Francis-Le-Blé. Referee: Jérôme Brisard.
Team pages: Stade Brestois 29 · Toulouse · Ligue 1
Key moments
- 9' Goal: Jacen Russell-Rowe (assist: Yann Gboho) — 0–1 · Watch Jacen Russell-Rowe's goal video (9')
- 18' Goal: Kamory Doumbia (assist: Mamady Diambou) — 1–1 · Watch Kamory Doumbia's goal video (18')
- 62' Goal: Christ Tapé (assist: Cristian Cásseres Jr.) — 1–2 · Watch Christ Tapé's goal video (62')
- 90' Goal: Ludovic Ajorque (assist: Hugo Magnetti) — 2–2 · Watch Ludovic Ajorque's goal video (90')
Starting line-ups
Stade Brestois 29 (4-2-3-1)
Toulouse (4-2-3-1)
Sirius · Why these numbers
Before kick-off Sirius gave Stade Brestois 29 42%, the draw 27%, Toulouse 31%. It finished Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Toulouse.
Home ground outweighs Toulouse's rating edge — Toulouse are the stronger side on our strength rating, but home ground plus Stade Brestois 29's control of the ball give Stade Brestois 29 the lean. The draw at 27% is held down by a high-scoring environment.
Why Stade Brestois 29 at 42%?
Home ground, against the rating. Toulouse sit 63 points higher on our strength rating — 1676 to 1739. Sides with a 50–100-point rating edge on the road won 32.9% of 10,549 such games. Stade Brestois 29 hold 8 more possession points (47 to 39 in recent games) — and between equals, control has been worth something. Between evenly-matched sides, home teams with this control edge won 47.9% of 5,187 games, vs 44.0% when styles were level.
Why only 42%?
Because Toulouse are the stronger side on our strength rating. Both sides are inside their first six league games — home wins land softer this early in the season, so this trims Stade Brestois 29's column. Across 10,761 opening-stretch games since 2010, home sides won 42.8% where the rating map expected 44.9%, with draws up 2.0 — negative in every season since 2018.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 28.3%. These teams' recent games average 3.2 goals — a high-scoring environment. Games in that environment drew 22.8% of 17,023. The goals environment takes 2.4 points off the draw. Early-season fixtures add 2.0 points to the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Stade Brestois 29 have shed 109 strength-rating points over their last 10 games. Momentum is measured but not yet proven: sliding sides won 34.7% of 9,671 such games vs 34.5% class-expected — inside the noise band, so it stays at 0 points until the receipt clears its evidence bar. Toulouse's last five: W-W-D-L — clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.7% of 2195 games when clearly hotter and 42.9% of 4007 when clearly colder.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: the Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse final score and result, goal highlights and video clips of every goal, who scored, starting lineups, match stats and the full match report from this Ligue 1 fixture.
- Who scored and when — a goal-by-goal timeline of the match.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Starting lineups and player ratings for both teams.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
- Watch Jacen Russell-Rowe's goal against Stade Brestois 29 (9').
- Watch Kamory Doumbia's goal against Toulouse (18').
- Watch Christ Tapé's goal against Stade Brestois 29 (62').
- Watch Ludovic Ajorque's goal against Toulouse (90').
Watch the goals: goal highlights and video clips of every goal from Stade Brestois 29 2–2 Toulouse. Explore more on the Stade Brestois 29 and Toulouse team pages or the Ligue 1 page.