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Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Le HavreLorientLe HavreLorientMatch preview
Le Havre seek an end to their slide against Lorient at Stade Océane
Matchday 10 of Ligue 1 brings Lorient to Stade Océane, where Didier Digard's Le Havre sit 18th with two points from nine games. Alexandre Dujeux's visitors are 12th on 12 points, ten clear of the hosts and six places higher in the table.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Le Havre arrive on a run of five straight defeats, the latest a 5-1 home loss to Paris Saint Germain on 30 October. Before that came a 4-3 defeat at Marseille, a game in which they scored three but still lost.
Lorient's recent results are mixed. They beat Paris FC and Monaco 1-0 at home, drew 0-0 at Angers and then lost 2-0 at home to Stade Brestois 29 on 2 November. Across their last five away games they have won two, drawn two and lost one, conceding only twice.
Across their last 5 meetings, Le Havre won 2, Lorient won 0, with 3 draws. The most recent meeting was Lorient 0–2 Le Havre on 17 May 2026.
Le Havre have lost all five of their last five games, conceding 16 goals, while Lorient have won two, drawn one and lost two of theirs.
Le Havre have gone nine games without a win, while Lorient have kept four clean sheets in their last five away games.
Le Havre meet Lorient in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 16:15 UTC at Stade Océane. Referee: Aurelien Petit.
Sirius · Why these numbers
Le Havre 33% · Draw 27% · Lorient 40%
Lorient's stronger rating gives them a slight lean — Lorient lead mainly because our strength rating has them 135 points higher, 1669 to 1535, while Le Havre's cold finishing, scoring 0.53 goals per game below their chances, pulls a little their way since streaks like that have bounced back. The draw sits at 27%, close to the usual 27.6% for this gap, with both finishing streaks nudging it down and typical scoring nudging it up.
Why Lorient at 40%?
Lorient sit 135 points higher on our strength rating — 1669 to 1535. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. Lorient sit -0.51 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%. The 300 most similar past games finished 28–27–45.
Why only 40%?
Le Havre sit -0.53 goals per game below chance-quality — cold streaks like this have bounced back. Finishing swings carry a receipt at this rating gap too: sides finishing this cold won 38.5% of 3,000 such games where the class table expected 35.6%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.4 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 26.4% of 30,399. The goals environment adds 1.2 points to the draw. The bounce-back factor takes 1.2 points off the draw.
What did we measure but not count?
Le Havre come into this after a busy window — 13 arrivals, 15 departures, and fewer of last season's regular starters still in the eleven. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Last five: Le Havre L-L-L-L-L, Lorient L-W-W-D-L — Lorient are clearly the hotter side on recent results. Between equals, recent form told us almost nothing: the home side won 44.0% of 2060 games when clearly hotter and 43.8% of 3981 when clearly colder. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Le Havre vs Lorient, the head-to-head record and recent form, stats-based pre-match analysis, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ligue 1 fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Le Havre and Lorient team pages or the Ligue 1 page.