Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon — Ligue 1: prediction, stats, lineups & analysis
Predicted lineups
Predicted from each team's recent lineups and the latest injury news. Official team sheets usually land about an hour before kick-off.
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Stade Brestois 29LyonStade Brestois 29LyonMatch preview
Stade Brestois 29 host third-placed Lyon on Ligue 1 matchday 10
Stade Brestois 29 welcome Lyon to Stade Francis-Le-Blé on matchday 10 of Ligue 1, with the sides separated by seven places in the table. Brest are tenth on 12 points from nine games, while Lyon sit third on 17 from the same number of matches.
AI-assisted match preview written from official match data.
Julien Lachuer's side arrive off a 2-0 victory at Lorient on 2 November, the latest result in a run that has also brought a 5-1 home win over Angers, a 1-1 draw at Lille and defeats by Auxerre and Nice. Across those five games Brest have scored 10 and conceded six.
Jorge Maciel's Lyon beat Angers 2-0 at home on 1 November, having lost 3-0 at 1899 Hoffenheim and 2-0 at Paris Saint Germain in the two games before that. They have won three of their last five, but only one of their last five away games, and have scored three goals in those five away fixtures.
Across their last 5 meetings, Stade Brestois 29 won 1, Lyon won 3, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was Lyon 2–1 Stade Brestois 29 on 18 January 2026. Stade Brestois 29's latest win in this sample was Stade Brestois 29 2–1 Lyon on 11 January 2025.
Brest have won two of their last five with 10 goals scored, while Lyon have won three of five but lost their two games before the Angers win without scoring.
Both sides have faced Angers and Nice recently: Brest beat Angers 5-1 and lost 2-1 to Nice, while Lyon beat Angers 2-0 and Nice 2-1.
Stade Brestois 29 meet Lyon in the Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 10). Kick-off is Sunday, 8 November 2026, 16:15 UTC at Stade Francis-Le Blé. Referee: Jeremy Stinat.
Team pages: Stade Brestois 29 · Lyon · Ligue 1
Sirius · Why these numbers
Stade Brestois 29 33% · Draw 27% · Lyon 40%
Lyon's higher strength rating gives a slight lean — We give Lyon 40% because they sit 122 points higher on our strength rating, 1772 to 1650, though Stade Brestois 29's usual home advantage keeps them close at 33%. The draw sits at 27%, starting near the usual rate for a gap this size and nudged down slightly by both sides' recent games averaging 2.9 goals.
Why Lyon at 40%?
Lyon sit 122 points higher on our strength rating — 1772 to 1650. Sides with a 80–160-point rating edge on the road won 39.8% of 14,872 such games. The 300 most similar past games finished 25–30–45.
Why only 40%?
No scored evidence points the other way. 40% is what this rating gap has been worth in games like these; the rest is the draw at 27% and Stade Brestois 29 at 33%.
Why the draw at 27%?
With a rating gap this size the draw starts at 27.6%. These teams' recent games average 2.9 goals — a typical goals environment. Games in that environment drew 24.7% of 27,360.
What did we measure but not count?
Lyon have rebuilt the eleven — fewer of last season's regular starters are still starting. Squad turnover reads dramatic but hasn't moved results once the rating is controlled: the busiest windows landed within noise across 5,368 games, rebuilt elevens likewise across 5,446, and even losing the most regular starters showed nothing (5,336). Stade Brestois 29 on 5 days' rest, Lyon on 2. Once class is accounted for, rest gaps stopped mattering — across 45,186 measured games no rest advantage repeated. The other measured facts on this page scored nothing either.
Sirius probabilities, frozen at kick-off. Analysis, not betting advice. How Sirius is doing this season · Full breakdown, evidence cards and squad news in the Match Insights tab
About this match
On this page: kickoff time and matchday details for Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon, the head-to-head record and recent form, confirmed lineups about an hour before kick-off — then the live score, goal clips and video highlights once this Ligue 1 fixture kicks off.
- Live score updates and a goal-by-goal timeline once play begins.
- Match stats — possession, shots, expected goals (xG), corners and cards.
- Confirmed starting lineups, usually about an hour before kick-off.
- Head-to-head record and recent form for both sides.
Explore more on the Stade Brestois 29 and Lyon team pages or the Ligue 1 page.